Sycamore (Grade 3)- $300.000 Purse
KEE- For Three Year Olds and Upward
One Mile and One Half on the Turf
October 14, 2022
There is no shortage of talent this Friday in the Grade 3 Sycamore, as a field of seven will be headlined by Winter Solstice, who will be running in new silks for the race. However, the rest of the field is plenty capable of spoiling his debut for his new trainer. It will be the 18th time that race has been run in our virtual world, and it has never seen a purse like the $300.000 it currently offers. In 2005, the stake carried at $150.000 and went down instead of up over the years, before bouncing back up to $150.000 from 2019 to 2021. Now, that has doubled and that has certainly attracted some very good runners. Last year’s race was won by Controlled Power, for Spankys Barn. He did race in the BC Turf right after that, but did not fare well in it, and has not been back near this level since. Here are those looking to be the next big winner of the race.
#1- Winter Solstice (Mb Stables, ridden by Mario Gutierrez)- Yes, Mb Stables has another new star in his stable, picking Winter Solstice up in private sales for $250.000 from John Henry on September 30th. That sale came less than two weeks after the seven year old gelding won the Grade 3 Singspiel. Winter Solstice should be well known at this point, given he has made over $3,000.000 in earnings, but this year actually has been more of a struggle than it would seem. The Singspiel is his only win of the year so far, and he struggled in the Bowling Green right before that. Remember though, the Bowling Green was one of those weirdly run races. In June, he was third in the Grade 1 Manhattan, so the talent is likely still there and this is a good spot for him to bounce back into.
‘
#2- Louisiana Chicken (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by Ru Gonzalez)- Having made only seven starts, it would be reasonable to think that he was one of the three year olds in the race. He is actually five years old, and did not make his debut until June of last year. He would spend two years sitting in the barn of Joshua Stables before being auctioned off for $1.910. After a couple races with Tacaro Farm, Maxmillion picked him up in private sales for $25.000 right after Christmas. The trainer has him on the right track, but is still looking for his first win with the gelding. It will come in time.
#3- Rotarian (Mb Stables, ridden by J R Rocco Jr)- Before breaking his maiden, Mb Stables had Rotarian on the KYD trail, running him in a couple preps before backtracking into maiden races again. It’s notable, because it’s something not seen from Mb Stables all that much, or at least not as noticeable to me from him as it may be from others. So, here we are, in October of his four year old season, and Rotarian is still not a graded winner. His biggest win was a $125.000 ungraded stake for ON-breds last year. Otherwise, he had several respectable finishes, but over his last three, he has not been as exciting. Maybe that’s why Mb bought Winter Solstice.
#4- Outcrosss (Threshold, ridden by D Davis)- In his first three starts, Outcrosss was raced very conservatively, but did win two of them. Threshold picked him up in a $6.250 claimer, and after an optional claiming win at TUP, gave him a shot at the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial Handicap. Outcrosss would run fourth, but it was a good enough of a result to show that the belonged at this level. He may have been over his head in the Forester Turf Classic, but bounced back with a second place showing at the BEL Gold Cup. Afterwards, he struggled in the Sword Dancer, so I could equally see the thoughts of this being a great spot for him to bounce back into, or it being a little too tough.
#5- The Big Beast (Nakamura Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- This is the only three year old in the field, and that will give him a three pound weight allowance. He was picked up by Nakamura in the March auction from Fractious for $20.800 after running in three straight $100.000 ungraded stakes, winning one of them. So far, he has not won a race for his new trainer, and has not even been entered in a stake in those four races. That would seem to make this a big leap of confidence. It’s also the longest that he has run in his career, so you could see how it might work out, but others in here are more appealing.
#6- Steel Home (Nakamura Stables, ridden by S Elliott)- The veteran seven year old gelding has made 36 starts, and won ten of them. During his career, he has had off and on entries at the stake level, but when he ran in the $100.000 Presious Passion Stakes last month, it was the first time he was in a stake since January 2021. He’s run in low claimers several times this year, including a $9.000 tag as recently as March, and no one picked him up. In the Presious Passion, he was third, so we can rest assured that if he runs for a low claiming tag again, that someone will pick him. He earned a 97 SRF for that race, but the end race time doesn’t jump out at me. I can see him being in the mix here, but can’t put him on top.
#7- Afterburner (Arindel, ridden by L Saez)- In terms of name recognition, Afterburner is second only to Winter Solstice, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be second to him here. A win would put him over $1,000.000 in earnings, which is well deserved. Afterburner has hit the board in five of his eight races, but only one of them was a win. That win was the Bowling Green, an awkwardly run race with shocking opening fractions. Following that, he was fifth in the Sword Dancer, so that could make his Bowling Green win seem to some like he was more opportunistic than good, but I am not one of them. This race is not as strong as the Sword Dancer, and I think he is a little stronger than Winter Solstice heading into the race.
Prediction: 7-1-6-3
— NS
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
