Glen Cove
AQU Race #5 6f Turf Stake
Purse $120.000 (plus up to $18.00 for NY-breds) For Fillies Three Years Old.
Every race is competitive these days and with the top stables having a glut of good horses even these little ungraded stakes races can be impossible to win without a very good horse. This one has no penalties so the field is even better, lets take a look at how they line up:
1 Simple Moon Mb Stables Cancel E
Drawn the rail she is a filly that was tested as a two year old at graded level but whilst she ran pretty well she wasn’t considered worth persevering with and went back to lower grade to learn her trade. Bought for $125 the new owner has followed a similar road but after a couple of mile races where she blatantly failed to stay a mile she was dropped back to five and a half in a big ticket SAR Allowance and duly romped home. On that effort this six furlongs looks perfect and with a great draw she looks like she will go very well.
2 Shoe La La Aer Stables Howell T
An interesting entry mainly because her form stands out but not for the reason some of the others do. Claimed last time for just $12.50 she had been moving down the grades after a maiden win and a couple of tries in allowances but finds herself contesting her first race for the new stable and her first stakes race today. A consistent enough sort who is better than that level she won at but she strikes a fairly tough field here and i wonder whether this may be too big an ask. Having said that she is working the same times as all the stakes winners in the field, showing once again how the levels of racing have blurred at HRP, and this stable knows a few tricks in this game so a big run wouldn’t be a surprise.
3 Stacysmomgotitgoinon Big Jd Racing Castellano J J
There are some horse names that make me smile and this one does it every time. A decent sort she has been stretched out over a mile recently and whilst she did well to be second in the Lake George she has struggled in her last two and drops back to sprinting today. Her form is better but her works aren’t as impressive but we all know ability to run at home has nothing to do with winning once it gets to these races. She is drawn well for a mid-pack running type but as usual she will need to avoid all the race engine anomalies, if she does she has a winning chance.
4 The Black Water Arindel Franco M
Never out of the first three in turf sprints she was mighty impressive in the Galway last time coming home a comfortable two length winner. Again when we look at the works we see she is no faster than the $12.50 claimer but she has achieved more on teh track and that can be the telling factor. I was impressed with her win last time but in this game you have to balance that with the fact that she was beaten in a state bred optional claimer in the race before so it is hard to really weigh up that win. The stable is in form and she too has a winning chance today.
5 Happy Beat Smokey Stover Lezcano J
The winner of eight from eleven she has won her last two both a stakes level and won her last by nine lengths albeit on a wet track which can be pretty unreliable form. She has been a sprinter from birth and strangely for a stable with so many top horses she has been kept comparatively low in the grades which may be down to her small stature and the hope she will be a top sprinter as an older filly. Her works are unimpressive but i have said it many times, they don’t seem to matter much any more as long as they are in the ball park. Always a winning chance from this stable, this one is no different.
6 Early Fire Maxmillion Farm Richards G G
A turf race and the turf king, well it should be that easy but this is a very even race. A speedy type her best chance will come with a fast start and an early lead which should be possible if she can catch some wide gate speed push. If she gets spinny legs at the start she is toast but anything other than that she is probably the fastest in the field.
7 Lotta Carnival Oval Express Farms Ortiz J L
Out in the car park we find the router. She has been largely disappointing since her third in the Honeybee at the start of the year but her works have remained strong so it is just a matter of catching some race engine luck and finding all the right combinations. The wide gate speed push may see her turned into a fast starter or of course she may get spinny legs and end up last, like Early Fire her race will be decided at the start.
SUMMARY
A race almost impossible to work out from work times so it is down to race craft as to who will take this out. Simple Moon and The Black Water seem to have a small edge on that score but it is virtually impossible to split any of the runners so i can’t even venture to try and pick just one winner. Good luck to everyone as it is probably that they will need most.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
