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Ten NY Bred Sophomores in The Rego Park at AQU

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1/10/2021

  2   AQU    The Rego Park

$100.000      3yo Foaled In NY        6 1/2f Dirt               122lbs +penalties

We look at a group of sophomores headed to the gate on Sunday for The Rego Park, a six and a half furlong main track event for the Empire State bred males, and I’m set on Holy Water as my top choice in this one.  He was in the middle of things at LA in the LA Futurity (GII) and he should find things a bit softer here today.  My second and third picks are also black-type experienced and I have Raunchy Bay the slight edge over Dial It Chuck, despite the flip-flop finish when they faced each other prior.  Either way, I like that trio in my exotics and I think you can make a buck with them. 

Here’s The Field –

1
   Bigmouth Raj    Night Rider Stables    Morales P   122   8/1

Had back to back wins after breaking maiden at FL and taking down high end claimers at KEE, then was fourth vs. similar here before that last out bomb when tenth of twelve, so I’m off his bandwagon in this one. 

2
   Chambers Brothers    John Henry    Fukumoto D   122   8/1

Broke maiden at SAR, then changed hands twice before a trio of less than impressive races vs. softer than what he sees today.  Either he has to reinvent his ways or it’s going to be another long afternoon at the race track. 

3
   Shelter At Home    D J C Racing Stables    Bahen S R   122   5/1

Back to back wins coming into this one and both of those races were on wet surfaces, so they may be hoping for rain today.  Broke maiden in the slop at LAD then took NY-bred Alw horses to task at FL on a good track, and he looked good in both of those starts.  Give him a look today. 

4
   Kailua    Smokey Stover    Franco M   122   5/1

Got the job done last out at CD taking down high-end MSW types, and was second vs. the same prior to that race.  He’s been rested since Nov and shows a nice string of am gallops getting ready for his sophomore debut.  Sharp outfit, so give him a glance. 

5
   Raunchy Bay    Estero Farms    Davis D   122   5/2

This one looks like a real contender to me, dropping out of those graded races.  He was eighth in the SAR Special (GII) and closed to be fifth in the Bourbon (GII) on the KEE grass, and closed late to be second vs Alw horses at DMR.  He’s gotten a bit of a rest and looks ready to run a big one here today. 

6
   Di Botti    Gdp Inc    Lezcano J   122   5/1

Well, you can’t fault him so far… one for one, taking down MSW at FL and has been rested since that victory, back in early Nov.   Shows a nice series of am gallops getting ready for this one, and he could be any type.

7
   Ginger Sand    The Sidley Stud    Carmouche K   122   6/1

The vet came by the barn after a pair of fourth place finishes at FL vs. maiden company, and it paid off as he ran off by two at CT to get the job done.  This is an obvious step up from that, but it was a quick race and he may be a good one. 

8
   Holy Water    D J C Racing Stables    Juarez N   122   9/5

Another that you have to give a big look at off of his two fourth place finishes in open stakes company, especially the late gap he closed in the LA Futurity (GII) where he was dismissed at 50/1 odds.  He should be good enough to put up a fight here. 

9
   Dial It Chuck    Arindel    McCarthy T   122   6/1

When he’s good, he’s good… Broke maiden at PRX, Third in the SAR Special (GII) and runner-up in the Sleepy Hollow, but when he’s bad, it’s not pretty.  Tired to be eleventh last out, so can he bounce back or is it another dud?

10
   Creepy Oly    John Henry    DeCarlo C P   122   12/1

Still a maiden, catches the outside post… not good.  He was second vs. MSW at GP last out on a good strip, but this may be asking a lot. 

COZMAN      8 / 5 / 9                Willie’s Green Card       6 / 4          

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Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded