The Acorn – Grade I
BEL Race #8 1m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $700.00 For Fillies Three Years Old.
1 You Just Have 2 Wait Estero Farms Bejarano R
Bought for an expensive looking $250 after an ungraded stakes win as a two year old her form since has justified that price tag. A winner back in January in her first start for the new trainer she raced from an impossible looking wide gate but still won well in the grade two Santa Ynez Stakes. That really was a huge feather in the trainers cap after buying her just six weeks before and she added to that with a gutsy win in The Busher again not from the best gate. Her draws continued to defy the odds in being so consistently wide but once again she covered herself in glory with a close fourth in the SA Oaks coming from way behind to be beaten just a length. The random draw once again saw her drawn wide in the KY Oaks but once again she ran a brilliant race to get into third just a length behind the winner. Today she gets the one box which can actually be as bad as a wide draw in these big fields but this is a filly that has everything and i think she can get a highly deserved win and get her revenge on Tenrikyo.
2 Dream Whisperer Mb Stables Beschizza A
A nice daughter of Decima she took the grade two Golden Rod at the end of her juvenile season and proved that was no fluke when taking the FG Oaks in March on the way to an attempt at the KYO. She got a horrible draw in the KY Oaks and the race engine sent her to the lead and followed its usual outcome when that happens by seeing her weaken back into a poor eleventh place. It wasnt only the draw that beat her that day the off track was almost certainly a factor too and i would expect her to be far more competitive from this perfect draw on a dry track.
3 More Sport Aml Racing Garcia Mar
A nice filly who is drawn well she faces a tough field here but has proved she can live in the heat of the kitchen before and should give a good account of herself. A stakes winning two year old she has struggled to make an impact at three finishing just out of the money in her three starts but the last one was when fourth in the AR Derby taking on the boys and that was a very solid effort. Her works are on the money and she is right in this without being one of the top fancies.
4 Huzza John Henry Talamo J
This was one of my favourite two year olds after three brilliant wins in a row showing an electric turn of foot and culminating in a last gasp win in the Adirondack. She didnt spark in the Chandelier and the BC Juvenile fillies but i feel she was forced to race closer to the pace in those races and i just felt she was better being ridden cold. Blushing Meadows sold her at the end of the year and in her three starts this year she has only managed one placing in the grade two Santa Ynez in January. All her three starts have been over seven furlongs and there is just a small part of me that thinks if she is taken back and put to sleep she may just fly home late over this longer trip. I would love to see her win but it has to be said she wont be among the favorites.
5 Ghost In The Shell Spankys Barn Van Dyke D
Bought from auction for just $14 whilst still a maiden she has exploded as a three year old winning her first two races and then running a great second in the Black Eyed Susan beaten just a half length. Her works are good and with only six career starts she is entitled to improve again and may just be one of those dark horses in the race.
6 Evening Star Fractious Bridgmohan S X
A consistent filly she has been second in both the Davona Dale and the Eight Belles this year over shorter trips. She has always looked like a mile plus filly but failed in the Gazelle when ridden from the back and may need to get up into a midpack or better position if she is going to have a chance today. Still improving she is not without a chance and should be in the thick of it as they turn for home.
7 Commanding Lady Chili King Stables Rosario J
A daughter of the great but frustrating Spotted Cat she has only one win from 5 starts but is much better than those stats suggest. Just caught in the SUN Oaks she ran well last time out to be fifth in the Star Shoots over an inadequate six furlongs but whilst she looks as if she is going to make a nice routing filly this is a very tough field.
8 Tenrikyo Smokey Stover Velazquez J R
Undoubtedly the filly of the year so far after she won the grade one Ashland and then added the KY Oaks in commanding fashion by a length. Whilst i am in no doubt she is very special i do have a little niggle that may well be satisfied today one way or the other. Her two brilliant wins this year have both come from perfect draws and in both cases she has traveled just worse than midfield and then found a comfortable way through. Today with gate eight she may well find it much harder to show the sort of authority she did in the KYO and whilst she will be the deserved favorite there is a possible chink in that impressive armor.
9 Maggie McGee D J C Racing Stables Franco M
This stable likes to throw their horses in the deep end and very often they run above themselves when faced with a rise in class. Sprinting in her last four starts she ran well enough in the Miss PS last time but its tough to see how her form can overturn some of these proven superstars. Of course her works are within a few tenths of the best so with a few hard luck stories and some luck going her way, who knows, she may just run into the money.
10 Totally Baroque Fractious Pennington F
There have been some big horses change hands recently for good money and when Fractious bought this filly for $400 from Mb Stables after a win in teh grade two Gazelle there were some drawn breaths as she looked a good chance in the KYO. As it was she ran very well to be beaten just a length in the end and wasnt overly liking the muddy track. On a dry track she could be a superstar and her works are heading that way. Certainly among the favorites and a real winning chance if she gets the trip ok.
11 Cannolo D J C Racing Stables Gaffalione T
When you are talking the top four in the KYO you are talking about second third and fourth being separated by a mosquito’s whisker. This one was fourth in that race after being fourth beaten a length in the Ashland just before that. She won the Davona Dale from a wide gate before that so is proven on all counts, going, draw and trip. It will be tough for her to beat Tenrikyo from a wider draw and over a shorter trip but she is right in this and cant be left out.
12 Cardi B Gdp Inc Wilson E J
Way way behind in the KYO she was probably the most adversly affected by the muddy track and that run is probably best left out when assessing her chances. Previously she had been a nice winner of the grade three Fantasy and third in the FG Oaks so those efforts put her right in this. Her works have been among the best of the field but she will have to overcome a terrible draw and a big deficit to triumph in a very strong field.
14 Z Command Joshua Stables Colon L H
If you look at the Ashland and the KYO runs of this filly you see two vastly contrasting efforts and these are the form lines that are so uniquely HRP. In the Ashland she was drawn 8 of 8 so the race engine turned her into a front runner and in the KYO she was drawn 6 of 14 so the race engine turned her into a closer. Its really impossible to judge either of those efforts although going on her huge effort in the BC Juvenile when a close third i suspect she is more of a natural closer. Drawn 14 today it may not be her or her trainers choice how she runs but its clear from her form that she has the ability to run very well if given the chance.
SUMMARY
This is a great race with the best fillies of the generation battling once more to be called numero uno. There is no doubting Tenrikyo is a fabulous filly but as i said earlier she doesnt get such a nice draw today and if she is ever going to get beat then this may be the race it happens in. Of the other KYO runners You Just Have To Wait was the only one out of the first four to have to tough out a wide draw so she may well be the main danger from that race. Dream Whisperer and Cardi B will be much better on a dry track and you cant ignore the chance of Totally Baroque over a trip that is possibly her best.
Whatever the result it will be a great race.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
