1 Hardline, trained by Downwind Stables

It is easy to think of this son of Pink Panther as a nearly horse. He has been a contender for top honours since his two year olds days and even though he has managed seven wins it has been in defeat that we have seen his best form. A graded stakes winning two year old he was tested against the classic generation as a three year old but came up short in the TC after a last gasp win in the LA Derby. His career best win came in the Travers when running on the pace from a wide draw and winning pretty handily by a length. He had a crack at the BC Classic after that and other wins and ran a decent race to be beaten only three lengths in eighth. At the seasons end he dropped back to seven furlong and was only just shaded out of a famous win in the grade one Malibu, a run that gives him some sort of chance over today’s mile. His four year old season has only seen one win when he took the San Antonio Stakes way back in February but he has run well enough since at the top level to suggest he has retained all of his three year old ability. He was second in the Triple Bend, grade one, over seven furlongs and ran a cracker in The Woodward to be a half-length second. It was possibly his weak run in the JC Gold Cup last time out that made the trainers mind up to take on this mile rather than the classic but I think it was the heavy going that beat him that day rather than the trip.

It is tough to settle on this horses best rip but he has won at graded level over the mile and has the pace to run at the top level over seven furlongs so I don’t see the mile as a major obstacle. The one draw is ideal and if he gets a good start and is allowed to run on the pace he will be very difficult to beat. He can win but he has a suspect turn of foot and he may find some coming late that could get to him without a perfect ride from veteran Gary Stevens.

2 Secret King, trained by Mb Stables

Three year olds have been all over the older horses recently so you cannot write this one off despite being off the pace on known form. Bought for $300 after scarping a dead heat in the Coolmore Lexington he then just got home in an overnight before running a close dead heat for third in the LA Derby. A win in the Obrien Stakes at grade two stamped this one as one of the most improved three year olds on the circuit and also suggested that this trip may suit him down to the ground. He disappointed a little in the Awesome Again Stakes which may have convinced his trainer that he is more of a miler than a classic horse and he comes here with little experience but undoubted ability. He has a competitive draw and if he doesn’t get swamped early on would have a fighting chance.

3 Conquest, trained by D J C Racing Stables

Another three year old who has franked the inconsistencies of his generation he has good winning form but has yet to really settle on a best trip. A winner over six furlongs and a creditable sixth in the SA Sprint Championship last time out suggests he has plenty of speed but with both of his graded stakes wins have come over a mile and sixteenth so this mile may be the answer to trip questions. His works are pretty strong and he has a good draw to play with so a win isn’t beyond the realms of possibility but he has yet to handle a really big field and may again be overawed by the hustle and bustle of a BC race.

4 Royal Prodigy, trained by Mb Stables

Another who disappointed in the mud of the JC Gold Cup he had previously beaten a good field in the Super Derby. Two wins over the mile suggest he is capable at this trip and his works suggest he is right on song. Again he has failed in his two attempts at larger fields and with limited experience at this level I do wonder whether the occasion will get the better of him, which is always a problem with an under exposed three year old. In order to win this he has to first beat his stablemates and he will have to be at his very best to do even that but he is certainly in with every chance.

5 Masquerade City, trained by Mb Stables

This six year old was bought at auction of fifteen dollars and after two easy wins in overnights for his new owner he has run very well at the top level. His best run came when second in the grade one Foster Handicap when trying to make all but weakening late to be a game second. Two subsequent sixth place finishes in the pacific Classic and the Awesome Again Stakes show that he isn’t too far behind the best but I think this may be the weakest of the stable entries and would have to look elsewhere for the winner.

6 Phelps, trained by Mb Stables

One of the few offspring from that wonderful racehorse Whats Up to actually win anything he is a very interesting entry. Bought at auction for $220 after a win in the grade two Autumn Stakes he won three in a row for his new owner including the grade three Ali on this track. He followed those wins up with three triple digit speed figures winning the grade three Hanshin Cup and finishing an excellent third in the Pacific Classic so would probably been on course for the Classic had he not joined a long list of failures in the JC Gold Cup. Take that last start away and he has the form and works to be right in this race and it would be lovely to see the great BC winner Whats Up represented with a BC winner from the shed.

7 No Trippin, trained by Mb Stables

This amazing old warrior did not win his first black type race until he was seven years old but since that win in the Foster Handicap he has managed three more graded stakes wins and become one of the most talked about horses on HRP. His win record of six from eight this season looks impressive but three of those wins came well below his grade so you have to look at his other wins and some of his defeats to really understand his chances. Battling wins in the PIM Special and Gold Cup would look like good form for the Classic rather than the mile but his good run when second in the CT Classic proved he can run a shorter trip so this may not be a question he cannot answer. I suspect his entry has more to do with what the owner has in the Classic than his ability to win at the mile but it is impossible to write off this grand old horse with a heart the size of a truck. His works have never been super impressive but his last work over six furlongs suggest he has found some speed in his eighth year and you would be some kind of fool to think he can’t win this. Already the best five dollar purchase ever he could write himself into the record books today.

8 You Big Freak, trained by Hawaiian Shirt Guy

After winning the DMR Futurity as a two year old this was thought as by many as the best two year old in training but two failures over longer trips in the Brett Futurity and BC Juvenile put him into the wilderness a little. A slightly confused trainer took him to the turf as a three year old to win the grade three Palm Beach and after a dirt failure in the FL Derby he was sent back to the grass for a good second in the American Turf. Unconvinced that this was just a good turf horse his trainer decided to step back in trip and return to the dirt for the Stephens and the Dwyer and sure enough the key was found and he won those two races in good style. He confirmed his liking for this sort of trip with a great third from a horrible draw in the Kings Bishop in what may turn out to be one of his best runs as a three year old to date. He was tried over a true sprint trip in the Gallant Bob but was a little outpaced suggesting that seven furlongs to a mile was his best trip. His last start came in the mud and is best forgotten even though he ran a fair third in the Kelso Handicap. I like his chances a lot and think he has a huge chance today over what may turn out to be his best trip.

9 Cape Canaveral, trained by Sanny Village

Dead Heated with Secret King in the Coolmore Lexington but has been a little better since then placing in the Stephens, Haskell and Super Derby. It is really hard to compare this seasons three year olds as they have been so similar that form lines get blurred so you have to give him a good chance today especially as the three year olds have been doing pretty well of late against their elders. I like the fact that he is relatively fresh after a busy spring campaign and his works have improved nicely so despite a sticky draw I do give him a decent chance in a wide open race.

10 Prince Of Monaco, trained by Nakamura Stables

Arguably the most accomplished three year old in the field his form lines read pretty similar to all the other three year olds but he has got a few things that make him a very interesting betting proposition. He managed to get into the TC chase in the spring and ran a very nice race in the KYD to be just two lengths behind in eighth. He topped that run in The Preakness leading at the mile but weakening to finish a creditable third and then ran similar types of races in the Winn and the prince Of Wales Stakes. Looking in need of a break he was rested for a bit and then gelded coming back in the grade three Jones Stakes where he looks revitalised in running out the winner in a fast time. The rest and the gelding look to have sharpened him up a little and with already good form to his name it isn’t too much of a stretch to see him running well today.

11 Spotted Cat, trained by Blushing Meadows

Wind the clock back a few months and this three year old was unbeaten in three with two black type wins and a very serious KYD hope. A first defeat came in the SA Derby but a good second didn’t dent his reputation and he went to the KYD as a real talking horse. He got caught up in all the traffic in the big one though and finished thirteenth and like the rest of his generation has been struggling to put performances together ever since. He ran well to be a close fifth in the PEN Mile and after a decent run in the BEL Sprint Championship went back to turf to establish himself as maybe the best three year old turf miler on the site. He was beaten under a length in the Arlington Million which was a huge run and then flew late in the WO Mile to be a close fifth. His last start saw an easy win in the grade three Hill Prince all of which suggested he may be in the field for the Turf Mile or the Turf, however, his trainer has chosen a bemusing return to the dirt for the dirt mile instead. Whatever reasons the trainer has for this entry the fact remains that this is a real racehorse who hasn’t fulfilled much of his huge potential.

12 Orange Skeleton, trained by Chili King Stables

Like so many of the three year olds it is hard to find a true line of consistent form that separates him from the rest of his generation although with this one we at least have enough information to only consider him if it rains. A good winner of the Kelso Handicap in the wet he got weight from You Big Freak that day but beat him fair and square. However his dry track form is less inspiring. His best effort was when second in the ungraded Real Good Deal Stakes and whilst this may be his best trip you have to take into consideration a poor draw and only average dry track form.

13 Generals Companion, trained by Maxmillion Farm

A huge winner of the SA Derby he went onto to run second in the KYD just a neck away from a famous win. Unlike most early season classic three year olds he has held his form pretty well running a great second in the Haskell and most recently finishing a close fourth in the PA Derby. I think he is bypassing the Classic for the mile so I think he may struggle to go with them early on but he will be finishing strongly if he gets the breaks from a terrible gate. His work times suggest he is in good fettle and he clearly has the best three year old form in the race so it is impossible to write him off despite the trip being short of his best.

14 Flashee Time, trained by Sanny Village

He will need all sorts of luck in running from the car park draw but he certainly has the sort of ability you need to win a BC race. A winner of the San Diego Handicap this year his best runs have been in defeat most notably in The Woodward last time out. He was second in the TX Mile so handles this trip ok and his work times are right up there so if he had an inside draw you would be liking him a lot. Can his experienced trainer find some way to get him into this race? Only time will tell but if he did win it wouldn’t be a shock going on his known form.

Also Eligible

15 Whatever Man, trained by Bigking

If he makes the field then you would have to like him based on his recent form and win in the BC Derby. He earned a 100 speed rating when winning over this trip in the ungraded Commentator and is working as well as any of them. Good luck to Bigking because if he makes the field he has a fighting chance.

16 Kentucky Hero, trained by Threshold

A nice enough sort but out of his depth even if he does make the race.

17 Kelly Rycroft, trained by Nakamura Sables

A fair sort who won an Allowance at BEL over this trip last time out. It is very doubtful he makes the field but has run well enough against his generation to suggest he wouldn’t be last if he did run.

SUMMARY

This is a very tough race to call but I think it may be between Hardline, You Big Freak and Spotted Cat. No Trippin may be the best of the Mb Stables entries and my heart is hoping he wins but my head tells me one of the younger horses may be victorious today.

Categories: BC 2015-17, THE BREEDERS CUP