05/27 The Critical Eye
BEL Race #7 1m Dirt Stake
Purse $200.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Foaled In NY.
1 Back Country La Canada Racehorses Lezcano J
These statebred stakes races are often open races but this one looks more like a handicap with an interesting spread in the weights. This one is in the mid range carrying 120Lbs and she is already proven at this level winning two statebred stakes at the end of last year. She has been stepped up to the mile this year and won her last start in a TAM Allowance so looks to have trained on well enough to be a contender in this race. Her works times are on the ball and if she can stalk the pace from this draw i expect a bold showing.
2 Queens Command Allinthegate Alvarado J
Carrying effectively bottom weight at 118Lbs this may be my top choice in that she has escaped penalties but has some really good graded stakes form. Beaten just a nose in the Golden Round last year she was only beaten a length in both the Santa Ysabel and the Fantasy this year suggesting she is a cut above this sort of level. This trip is on the short side for her but this ideal draw should help and i expect her to be winning.
3 Campfired Team 7 Illusions Cancel E
This is a fair sort but being a four year old she gets 124Lbs and i dont think she is good enough to overcome that. Fair form at this level and sharp works probably wont be enough but if she gets a little luck she is certainly good enough to be in the fight.
4 Golden Hour D J C Racing Stables Bravo J
She put in a good effort in the SUN Oaks last time running fourth beaten just two lengths and if you take out the poor effort on an off track she is certainly right in this. She gets a 2Lb penalty for her win in the Glorious Song Stakes so that makes it tough for her against Queens Command but she is certainly among the favourites to get in the money.
5 Dawn The Destroyer Mb Stables Franco M
She has been hugely impressive in her last two starts winning by open air in two competitive overnights. There were only starts two and three in her short career and whilst they were both wins on an off track her works suggest she is not just a wet tracker. Carrying 118Lbs she will be in good shape here as long as she can overcome the wide draw.
SUMMARY
Weight, draw, jockeys. Thats my mantra rather than any ability when picking a winner at HRP so its one of two for me in Dawn The Destroyer and Queens Command. With the draw in her favor i will go for Queens Command to beat Dawn The Destroyer with Golden Hour and Back Country battling it our for third.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
