BC Juvenile (Grade 1) (KYD)- $2,000.000 Purse
KEE- For Colts and Geldings Two Years Old
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
November 4, 2022

The biggest race of the two year old season is upon us, as the 20th edition of the BC Juvenile takes place at KEE. In addition to taking home the winner’s share of the $2,000.000 purse, and the KYD points that the race offers, the winner of the BC Juvenile will be seen as the first true favorite for the KYD itself. It does not always work out that way for the winner of this race, and for a little while it seemed as though the BC Juvenile winner might be “cursed” on the KYD trail. That talk would eventually be put to rest, but we would go all the way to 2019 when a BC Juvenile winner the previous fall ended up winning the KYD, thanks to the effort of Beach Dandy. That was also the last year that the eventual KYD winner even ran in the BC Juvenile, so while this race may make us think about the first Saturday in May and the TC, in reality, it has simply been a race to determine the best two year old male horse in our virtual world. And there is nothing at all wrong with that. Last year, the winner of the BC Juvenile was Grouse Mountain, for John Henry. He did win the San Felipe this year, but after that, he simply did not pan out as a three year old. Come To Poppa, who was the runner up, had a win at the start of 2022 but has also struggled as a three year old, but is still regularly seen at the graded level. The third place Juvenile finisher was Come With Assets, who has also underachieved this year. Let’s take a look at those that will be heading to gate in this 20th anniversary race.

#1- Drop Off (Williams9, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- We start this off with a horse that seems unlikely to win the race, or to even be a factor in it. Drop Off was at his best during the summer, running third in the Grade 3 Sanford and second in the Grade 2 SAR Special. However, he has not adapted to running longer and his last two races have been ugly. That is not form that can get me excited, but perhaps there are reasons for that, and Williams9 can correct them. The fact that this is happening with a horse that has a short femur is concerning.

#2- Ben Nevis (Hippyheart, ridden by J R Velazquez)- Here’s a horse that has impressively been turning into a nice one. He would win his first two career starts, the first coming in April but then he was off until September. Between those races, you can see very noticeable improvement in his works and when he did show up, he won the World Trade Center Memorial at BEL. That sent him to his first stake appearance, and by running third in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity, he proved that he is one of the top two year olds in the game right now. Still a bit lightly raced, and that will really help him into this three year old season while being beneficial here as well.

#3- Phalanx (Bigchief Stables, ridden by M E Smith)- This is another horse that has only made three starts as a two year old thus far. He debuted in early April at SA, and it did not go well but the trainer was not deterred by the effort and kept him on the shelf for four months to see what kind of add combinations might be best for him. When he returned to the starting gate, it was with both lasix and bute, and it worked well as he broke his maiden at DMR. That sent him to the Grade 3 Iroquois, and he won that as well. His mile work times don’t jump out at you, but the horse knows how to pick it up on race day.

#4- Night Raider (Mb Stables, ridden by P Lopez)- Last year, his sire, Tactical, won the BC Classic, and is damn, Chances Taken wasn’t a slouch either. It is good to see Night Raider following the lead of his parents, as he has two wins in six starts. As of right now, his biggest win is the $100.000 Jack at HST for Canadians, so his signature win is still a work in process. However, he does come off a strong second place finish in the Grade 2 Pharoah at SA last month, where State Of Fury was a length better. He will look for revenge on that one here.

#5- Shoo Fly (Lazy Eye, ridden by A Bocahica)- This horse is emerging as the first true stable star for Lazy Eye, as he is fresh off a win in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity. That should bode well for this race, as there are several in this field that were a part of it. For Shoo Fly, it was his second win out of five career starts. He has otherwise earned a part of the purse in both the Best Pal Stakes and the DMR Futurity leading up to this race. Has consistently registered SRF’s in the low 90’s, and that will put him right in the mix here.

#6- Mamba (Mb Stables, ridden by A Cedillo)- It has to at least be said: Mamba is a maiden. Now, with that out of the way, there is no reason to think that this No Doubt About It gelding can’t get the win here. If the maiden status bothers you, just pretend he prevailed in the photo at the wire in the Grade 1 Champagne last month. Leading up to that, he ran consistently well in maidens with triple digit purses, more then showing he could win a race. Those were sprints, too, and he may have just been waiting to go a little longer like he did in the Champagne. He’s not my pick but don’t disregard him because of the zero in the win column.

#7- Spirit Believer (Nakamura Stables, ridden by D E Centeno)- This colt ran well in his first five starts, winning on debut in April, and then winning the $200.000 Saplin at MTH in August. Spirit Believer continued to look sharp afterwards with a second place effort in the Iroquois where Phalanx narrowly defeated him. Nakamura Stables sent him to the grass after that, and it would not work out at all for him. Fortunately, it did not cost him his spot here in the BC Juvenile and I look for him to return to form without any issue.

#8- Forceamalu (Arindel, ridden by E Maldonado)- His full brother, Sharkamaulu, ran in the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint, but Forceamalu is quickly becoming the best of Hanamaulu’s foals. Right now, this colt has won thrice over his four starts and that includes both the $100.000 FT Futurity in June and the Grade 3 Best Pal Stakes in his next start. I recall watching that second race and being particularly impressed with his effort. While the win streak ended in the DMR Futurity in mid-September, nothing about his second place effort there should discourage anyone. He hasn’t run over a mile yet, so if you want a red flag on him, that’s what it should be. However, I still think he is going to run well.

#9- Loko Moko (South Shore Stables, ridden by M Franco)- This horse has already passed through a couple stable’s hands, and was acquired by South Shore Stables in June for $100.000 after spending a mere twelve days with Night Rider Stables. After winning his first race with the trainer, giving him three wins in three races with three trainers, Loko Moko was happy to stay put and ran second in the Best Pal Stakes in August. Most recently, he is coming off a second place effort in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity, where he showed very good early speed.

#10- Peace Pipe (Arindel, ridden by D Moran)- There are several horses in this field, who could probably boast the claim of looking the best coming into the race, and Peace Pipe can definitely make the argument that he deserves that distinction. After all, he comes into the BC Juvenile off a win in the Grade 1 Champagne, and we should mention somewhere that it was a sloppy track in that race. For Peace Pipe, it was his third win in five starts, and he can also boast a victory in the Grade 3 Sanford. It’s close, but he is the highest earner in the field up to this point.

#11- State Of Fury (Alydar Stables, ridden by J J Hernandez)- He’s had a lightly raced two year old campaign up to this point, making just three starts. In his June debut, he didn’t look like someone that was going to the BC, but he may have just needed that start. He would re-appear in September while wearing blinkers for the first time and he came through the field in the stretch to win by a length, while running a mile. It would then be off to the Grade 1 Pharoah where he executed a similar come from behind style to perfection, winning that by a length as well. Everyone in this field will need to be looking behind them to see if he is making a similar move.

#12- Spoiled (Mb Stables, ridden by L Saez)- It can be hard to believe that Mb Stables has never won the BC Juvenile, but he will have three strong ones going for him this year. Spoiled is the final one of those three, and the one that has been the most successful up to this point. He would win four of his first five races, and they were good ones. After taking the Bashford Manor, Spoiled was strong at the SAR meet, earning victories in both the SAR Special and the Hopeful. The latter is a race that always seems extra hard to win, as well. For some reason, Spoiled didn’t fire in the Champagne, but perhaps with a bad race behind him, we’re ready to see the great version of this horse once again.

#13- Gorogue Laga (Arindel, ridden by E Jaramillo)- Made his debut in early April, and it did not go well. A few days later, he would lose his ability to breed. Gorogue Laga has responded really well to the geld, and he has not lost a race since then. His three for three stretch began with a maiden win at WO for a $123.200 before he would win the $125.000 Victoria Stakes at the same track. Following that, he would face his toughest competition yet, going to DMR for the Grade 1 DMR Futurity. Not only would he win that race, but scoring a two length victory opened eyes and earned a lot of respect. He’s never run over a mile yet, but looking at that race, it seems as though he will thrive at such distances. The bad news for this one is obviously this post, but there is plenty of reason to be excited about his chances despite that.

#14- Twin Rackets (Alydar Stables, ridden by S Elliott)- Finally, we come to a horse that will need to be looked out for in the stretch, much like his stablemate. Twin Rackets has raced four times so far, winning his first two (each in overnights) before being moved into the stake level. Unfortunately, we have yet to see him handle this level on a fast track but in the slop, he did run second in the Hopeful and fourth in the Champagne, punching his ticket to the BC Juvenile. What stands out the most about him is that he is often way back at the start, even more so than State Of Fury. It wouldn’t surprise me to see one of these Alydar horses use a different tactic to not both be near the back early.

Prediction: 10-8-12-13

— NS

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP