July 22, 2016

The Coaching Club American Oaks is one of the ultimate prizes for a three-year-old filly and along with the Acorn and the Alabama, comprise a series of Grade I races that emulate the Triple Crown in both class, stamina and pure racing ability. Held since 1917, it has been a true test of route ability throughout the years with winners including Top Flight, Black Helen, Vagrancy and Next Move before the real champions started to emerge. Shuvee, Chris Evert, Ruffian and Davona Dale all took their position in the winner’s circle at Saratoga while the age of the Breeders Cup saw the likes of Goodbye Halo, Open Mind, Lite Light, Sky Beauty and My Flag prove their worth. Ashado won a memorable running in 2004 to give trainer Todd Pletcher his second of seven wins in the race, to go along with the last three at the now shortened nine-furlong distance.

It did not take long for the CCA Oaks at HRP to really establish itself as an important race, since the first two winners were Paris and Java Jive, who combined for 11 other Grade I wins and more than $6000.000 in earnings between them. Mrs Bombastic was already a winner of the AR Derby and PRK when she toyed with rivals in the 2010 edition before being sold for more than $2,000.000 while Karloff was a FL Derby winner when she won a thriller in 2013 over the likes of BC Juvenile Filly winner P O W Panda and six-time Grade I winner Stella Artois. A sloppy track last year saw Behrens Bride win in an upset over current superstar Distant Cousin but with only five horses signed on here, it will take a huge overlay to provide the same kind of drama that we have seen in recent years. With only a single Grade I winner signed on, it will be interesting to see how the newcomers fare and with nine-furlongs to travel, anything is possible over a SAR course that is always ripe for an upset.

1-Command And Conquer (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-John Henry)

A multiple Grade III winner from only seven career starts, Command And Conquer was more than 1000-1 in the KY Oaks and showed little as expected and now, tries to go that same distance against a smaller field off another lackluster effort in the BEL Oaks. Her speed ratings are solid enough and she does enjoy going a route of ground but she has to get into the race much sooner if she wants to get a piece and that first quarter-mile will either make her or break her.

Analysis-Must get going quicker if she wants to win
Fair Odds-6/1

2-Powerful War (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Grimley)

Powerful War broke her maiden going six-furlongs over a good CD main track and is not expected to tackle some of the best fillies in the country over a very tough SAR course and on speed ratings alone, she will be the longest shot in this small but talented field. She has a single one-mile workout in her credit in preparation and while she has gone long in the past, there are just too many obstacles to overcome and she will have to be at her very best to hit the board.

Analysis-Longshot off a single maiden win

Fair Odds-40/1

3-Dirty Deeds (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Aer Stables)

Fifth in the KY Oaks after a series of excellent efforts, Dirty Deeds finally broke through with a huge win in the Summertime Oaks over fillies who finished one-two in a stakes event at WO and will try to come up with another big effort under a familiar jockey. Her 98-speed rating is one of the best in the entire field and she did even better in the FG Oaks with a close trip so the hope is that she can actually sit close to a tiring leader and rocket to the front before the closers get going, over a course that plays well to speed most of the time.

Analysis-Big effort at SA leads to a big move back to NY

Fair Odds-3/1

4-Asclepios Trail (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Bigking)

Asclepios Trail was claimed for $15.000 off a maiden win at TAM and while she has won two straight races going short, this is a big test for both class and distance and one that will be probably be a little too much for her unless others in the race falter. She has shown excellent speed in each of her last two starts off the claim and looks to be a very quick type in workouts so the idea is that she will go to the front and try to set a modest pace while saving enough for what should be a very tough drive to the wire.

Analysis-Will go to the front and never look back

Fair Odds-10/1

5-The Hanging Tree (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

The inside runner in the CCA Oaks was a huge $600.000 purchase back in June but The Hanging Tree was an even bigger purchase only three wins ago and after being taken for a mammoth $800.000, she will try to earn some of that back as the favourite in this talented field. Second in the GP Oaks and the Beaumont, she was 37-1 in the Grade I Acorn and overcame the widest gate in a field of 12 to win in near gate-to-wire fashion and although there is other speed in here, she will not need to lead and needs only a clear trip to prove her might.

Analysis-Amazing win last time needs only to be duplicated

Fair Odds-2/1

Overall

Grade I winner The Hanging Tree was too good to believe last time out at BEL and the move up the state to SAR for the Grade I CCA Oaks should not be an issue, nor should the stretch out in distance with that extra furlong affording her the chance to sit a good stalking trip. Dirty Deeds will be sitting that same trip but will try to get into the race before the favourite and double up in Graded Stakes company while Command And Conquer is a hit-and-miss type who could be a top contender on her best but needs to overcome some dismal runs at this level.

Prediction

Win-The Hanging Tree (2/1)

Place-Dirty Deeds (3/1)

Show-Command And Conquer (6/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES