Lewis Stakes – Grade III [KYD]
SA Race #8 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $200.000 For Three Year Olds.

These early KYD qualifiers really get the blood running but they also remind you of just how hard it is to get a runner in the KYD let alone the winner. Another full field of wannabe’s to sort through and maybe an emerging star, do we see the KYD winner today?

1 Prestigious Freak Saratoga Stud Ortiz I Jr 121 —

Winner of his last two, he may be untested at this level but a recent work of 1.36 and 3 says he may be ready to explode onto the KYD scene. He won his maiden on turf at the third time of asking but I really liked the way he coped with a wide draw in an optional Allowance last time when only winning by a narrow margin but doing it the hard way. He is rock hard fit and ready to go, and I think we may see a big run from him.

2 Team Leader Fractious Garcia Mar 121 —

Always a potent force this stable has really concentrated on their racing stable in the past 12 months, and it really has paid dividends. Here we have another three-year-old that has accomplished enough to be considered a major chance here and whilst some have something to prove at this level this one has already shown he can live with the best. Disappointing in the Pharoah he quickly bounced back for a gutsy win in the Laffitte before running a solid fourth in the LA Futurity and has been working solid times at home ever since. Drawn perfectly, I cannot see this one being outside the top four.

3 Dr Pepper Keikowin Racing Desormeaux K J 121 —

A blistering work of 1.36 and 2 recently sent the scouts out and this homebred colt may just be a flagship runner for the stable. Showing an impressive turn of foot to win his maiden last time I do worry however, that his racing style may inhibit his chances in these big race qualifiers. Closers on this engine certainly struggle to find consistency as so much relies on pace and gaps that they can often get beaten when being the fastest horse in the last two furlongs. The trainer will know that though and if they can keep them in striking distance and get some racing luck then there is no reason why he can’t take a step towards the KYD today.

4 Rare Truth TwinTowersRacing Jaramillo E 121 —

Probably the most under rated player in the game you can never write a runner from this yard off at any level. Whilst his recent works may look a tick off the best here, he has proven as a juvenile that he is at home in this grade. I guess, looking at his form that he will need to find his stride early and it will have to be the right one as he has run as a closer and a front runner with similar success. If the AI and the trainer get it right this could be another winner for the stable.

5 Awad D J C Racing Stables Ayuso A 121 —

He has run his best races in defeat but if you choose the best of his form then he may be among the best in this field. Fourth in the BC Juvenile, third in the grade one Champagne and fourth in the Hopeful all suggest that this is a live KYD contender, and he has the benefit of a recent run which may well be a telling factor.

6 Off Stage Asgar Gallardo A A 121 —

Got stuck in the mud in the Springboard Mile but still managed fourth after leading early at a fast pace for the conditions so I think that effort was a lot better than it looks on paper. He had shown plenty of fight in his previous three races, but this draw may see him struggle with his natural on pace running style. I say that because the mid draws can sometimes be held out by the inside and riled up by the wide gate speed push and find it difficult to settle into a rhythm. I think he could run a big race today, but a lot will depend on his start and the shape of the race.

7 Southern Oak Jive Inc. Pennington F 121 —

A consistent sort at a slightly lower stakes grade he hasn’t run beyond six furlongs yet, but a recent work over the mile suggests he may be better over a mile plus. He has ability but is a throw in chance here who may run well but the jury is still out.

8 Rearranger Mb Stables Bridgmohan S X 121 —

We get all the way out to gate 8 before we come to the first of the champion trainer’s runners. Bought for no less than $400.000 after a maiden win, he ran well enough to be second in the Jerome in his first start for Mb but at that price that could be seen as a failure. A lot rides on his effort today but with only three starts he surely is open to improvement and will have his supporters. He could well win, but I am not convinced in an even field.

9 Lasting Impressions Alydar Stables Espinoza V 121 —

Made all to win his maiden in December and was then a whisker behind Rearranger in the Jerome on his third and last start. I doubt there will be much between them again today, but I just feel that this one may get their revenge on that runner. The draw is sticky, and the trainer is still experimenting with adds so he may be a gamble, but he is a gamble that could pay off.

10 Falling For You Mb Stables Centeno D E 121 —

The Breeders Futurity winner from last year is probably the number one choice of the stable but he has been plagued with difficult draws and gets another today. He went off the boil after that grade one win so needs to find his old form today. We may see a positive ride from Centeno today and if he uses the wide gate speed push and gets a lead, he may be difficult to pull back.

11 Nardwuar Asgar Vazquez R A 121 —

Got his chance here after a last gasp win in the King Glorious Stakes last time and I have a feeling that he may turn out to be a decent sort. Having said that the draw will be very difficult to overcome, and this is a step up so he will have to go up another level to pull it off.

12 Hurricane Ridge Fractious Gutierrez Mario 121 —

Bit of a shame this progressive sort ended up in the car park but that may end up being a blessing as he has plenty of pace and was strong off the front in the Pascoe last time. If he gets the expected wide gate speed push and gets clear, then he may just be the dark horse in this race.

SUMMARY

I like Hurricane Ridge but he will need the race engine to do its job for him to win so it may pay to look for a safer bet. The same applies to Dr Pepper who will need the gaps to open up at the right time to pull off the win. So, either of those two are good enough to win but face engine challenges so maybe I will settle on Lasting Impressions or Team Leader as safer bets. Better still maybe box ’em up for the Trifecta.

Categories: Grade III