The Pegasus World Cup Turf – Grade I
GP Race #13 1 1/8m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $1,000.000 For Four Year Olds And Upward.
Well, I rather stupidly mis-read my assignments for this weekend and covered the Pegasus World Cup, but the wrong one, I was in fact assigned the turf. Fortunately, I saw my mistake and whilst I apologize to the other writer and will get a sore neck from all the writing it does give me the chance to write about two of the big three races this weekend. So here goes: Pegasus World Cup take two.
1 Chagrin Falls Mo Mentum Farm Curtis B 124
There isn’t much left to be said about this great veteran. Last year I wrote of his shock win in the BC Turf where he got home by a neck in a career best ever result and now, I get to cover him again as he turns eight years old and tries again to upset the younger generation. There aren’t many horses that have their best ever results as a seven-year-old so it is clear this is a very very late developer and even now as an eight-year-old we may still be seeing the best of him. There is a large part of me that would love to see him win this but that is also tinged with that apprehension that comes with ageing so it is hard to be over confident. This race however is no harder than the BC and with the same ace draw, well, it is just possible he could do it again.
2 Neon Lightning Nakamura Stables Bejarano R 124
You only have to look at relative works and you can see where the four-year-olds stand against five-year-olds and older. It is clear in most cases that they are a step behind development at this time of year but sometimes we have seen them triumph despite this disability. This four-year-old was very good last year ending a huge season with an impressive all the way win in the HOL Derby and with the disparity between the work and race engine becoming more obvious it is just possible that he can do that again today. Drawn perfectly to lead or stalk a lot will depend on how hard he is ridden early and what the early pace is set to by the race engine. With reasonable splits and a good trip, he is a big winning chance.
3 Moonligtonthewabash High Voltage Prat F 124
Well, we have the BC Turf and the BC Mile winner in great gates and that makes a for great race. Like the turf winner his victory was a little surprising, in fact if you notice that the BC was his only win in eleven starts last year you could probably say it was more so. He had been consistent but not outstanding before the BC but ran a huge race to just get up in time to dead heat for the win but staright after that ended the season with another consistent but not outstanding run to be third in the Hernandez Stakes. Clearly, he is tough to catch on the right day so it is impossible to carry any winning confidence into this race but his works have been really encouraging and he looks a great top four chance.
4 Extravagant Bigchief Stables Lopez P 124
A consistent enough sort and drawn and working well he is well placed in this huge line up. A close second in the Gun Runner just being edged out by Neon Lightening he missed the BC after a close fourth in the Shadwell Turf Mile and that may end up being advantage as it is always tough to come back form the BC. You have to take his chance seriously even though he will find it tougher as a four-year-old this early in the season.
5 State Cavier Diablo Diablo Pennington F 124
A seven-year-old and twelve race winner he has been a good horse for a long time and is another likely to sit close to the pace. He certainly has the ability to win but, in a race, full of superstars it won’t be as easy as just having ability. So far in his illustrious career he has struggled just a little at grade one whilst looking the part at grade two and below so I would put him as a top four chance rather than an outright winning one.
6 Buffalo G Nakamura Stables Castillo I 124
Well, if you thought Chagrin Falls was getting old then this one is positively ancient as a nine-year-old. Whilst we don’t so many nine-year-olds, I can only think of two off the top of my head, that can win at the top level he has certainly shown that he can be competitive at this level. The winner of twenty races it would be grand to see the old stager get home but, in a race full of early speed, which is his forte, arthritis may get the better of him down the stretch,
7 Ello Santa Mb Stables Gutierrez Mario 124
I know Mb Stables would love to get revenge for the defeat in the BC and he lines up the SAR and BEL Derby winner here to try and better his very close third in the BC Turf last year. Usually, an on pace type he went back in the BC and finished very well to only go down by a quarter length in third and he will have plenty of supporters to go two better today. He was the outstanding turf three-year-old last year but like the other four-year-olds may be a development step behind at this stage of the year going on his works. There is no doubt he is all quality and looks an obvious favorite.
8 Killer Instinct Mb Stables Santana R Jr 124
The Mb Stables pair are drawn next to each other and this seven-year-old represents another solid winning chance. He tried to make all in the BC Turf but faded late to end up a length back in sixth but with this shorter trip may be ready to reverse some form. His quality is underlined by the fact that he was second both times in the previous two BC Turfs and whilst he has disappointed in this race a couple of times it is impossible to leave him out of any combinations.
9 Edged Out TwinTowersRacing Franco M 124
I have said it before and I will say it again, you can never say never with a horse from this stable. The winner of the Hill Prince in his last start as a three-year-old that was only his second career win so you would have to say this race ‘looks’ out of reach but he ran well to be second in the JC Derby in the race before and his form figures aren’t helped by the way he has jumped around trips and surfaces. He may be my dark horse pick in a field that is bound to throw up a shock or two in the first four.
10 Sioux Arrival High Voltage Centeno D E 124
Not too far back in the BC Turf when seventh he is very good make no bones about that but it is hard to find the consistency in his record to see him beating the best of these. He was excellent when he won the KY Turf Cup so he can compete and beat the best but he finished behind on other occasions and as a body of work his form may not be good enough.
11 Alydar D J C Racing Stables Velazquez J R 124
Won one race last year and that was the Nashville Derby for a huge prize so it is clear he can rise to a big occasion. In truth his form looks to inconsistent to be sure of what he will do today but he liked the wide gate in the Nashville and even in the BEL when he wasn’t beaten far so maybe that is his key. His works have impressed me and if like any deep closer he gets a fast early pace then he may be flying at the end and take another big purse at long odds.
12 Great Vault Winning Link Stables Hernandez R M 124
Beaten a neck into second in the BC Turf last year he had his best season by a mile and may be a late developer that is due to make his seventh year his best. This is his worse draw for a long time so it will be tougher to sit in mid-pack where he likes to be but if he gets some race engine luck, he is a serious threat.
13 Derby Dreams TwinTowersRacing Davis D 124
There can be very little explanation how this horse won the grade one Hirsch and then ran a distant last in the BC in two races right next to each other so it is probably best for now to ignore his BC effort. At his best even with this draw he has a chance but it isn’t as compelling as some of the others, probably due to the consistency of his form.
14 Cochabamba Riggins Racing Bridgmohan S X 124
The car park goes to this five-year-old that also ran down the field in the BC Turf but his form and certainly his works say that wasn’t the best of him, so it may pay to give him another chance here. He has won his best races from the front so may use the wide gate speed push to try and lead but with lots of speed inside him that won’t be easy. If he get’s an easy lead he could run well.
SUMMARY
Well, what a race! We have the first three home in the BC Turf, the best of last years three-year-old turf runners and a BC Mile winner, it really doesn’t get much better than this. Trying to pick the winner is probably second to the spectacle but I will try and make a case regardless.
I am always wary of four-year-olds at this time of year so will treat them as one group before looking at the older horses. My pick of this group is made on the assumption that the pace will be hot and if it is I think that Alydar may pull off a shock. Yes, that’s a long shot against some brilliant horses in his own age group but pace will be key here and like Poker we won’t be playing the cards in our hand but the cards of the other players so it may be worth the gamble.
Of the older horses, well generally they are all benefiting from a weight concession from the four-year-olds after last years BC so that will certainly help them in a race full of quality like this. I think Chagrin Falls will run well but maybe Sioux Arrival offers some value from the wide gate if the rains come.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES