August 12, 2016

This weekend at AP is all about the grass and three-year-olds are in the spotlight with the running of the Grade I Secretariat Stakes, of course named for one of the greatest horses to ever look through a bridle. Overshadowed now by races like the Grade I BEL Derby and even the Breeders Stakes up at WO, it has been won by some of the best throughout the years including Dead Silent, Laffin Hyena, Ashkalani and Steel Moon but this year, it seems like the best have abandoned the race for others and that leaves a wide-open field of nine including few Graded Stakes winners and even a couple from the TC trail earlier this year.

1-Pinstripes Proud (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Aer Stables)

Two state-bred wins in eight starts might not be much to look at in a Grade I event such as this but Pinstripes Proud was decent enough in the BEL Derby to warrant at least a chance in this spot and will be hoping to find that extra little push from the inside stall. Speed figures have been steadily improving all season long and he enjoys the route distances but the question is whether he will get into the game earlier than normal and if he does, whether he will have enough in reserve to last.

Analysis-Will hope for speed to his outside and a clear path late

Fair Odds-10/1

2-I Have Arrived (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

I Have Arrived has not been headed in his last two starts and showed incredible speed in a win at DEL in the Kent Stakes, making him a legitimate wire-to-wire contender in a field that is crying out for a superstar. There does not seem to be a lot of early speed to his outside and that could leave him with a big chance to take them all the way again and if he gets things easy at this long distance, his speed ratings are enough to carry him through.

Analysis-Big win last time sets him up as a speed threat here

Fair Odds-4/1

3-Aggravation (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

Aggravation was a surprise winner of the Grade II Wise Dan and really pulled off another big win in the Nijinsky at WO last time out and on the heels of those efforts, is the likely favourite here in his return to straight three-year-old competition. His speed ratings are top class and he does not face the best of his division; coupled with his stalking and closing ability, he should be able to run down the speed at this longer distance and really make a case for the biggest races later in the year.

Analysis-Comes into his own against older and now faces sophomores

Fair Odds-2/1

4-Black Mach One (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Pan Farms)

A multiple stakes winner on the main track, Black Mach One has been bounced around for some very high prices and after going for $300.000, made a very lackluster debut for the new barn in the BEL Derby, where he finished last of 14. While he might have been close at the wire with his best speed rating to date, he really failed to make any ground up during the race and will simply have to be better to hit the top half of the field.

Analysis-Not a very good turf route debut

Fair Odds-25/1

5-Gallivant (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Joshua Stables)

Gallivant was an excellent winner of the Grade III PEN Mile and was well backed at BEL but could only manage eighth in a rampant finish and will hope that the pace scenario is better for him to close into, with the inside speed. Raced almost exclusively on the turf with plenty of good efforts, he also comes in with some sharp recent workouts and on paper, has to be considered a solid contender to find his best footing late in the lane.

Analysis-Excellent at BEL and should appreciate this level once again
Fair Odds-6/1

6-Pervoked (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)

Pervoked makes a huge jump in class from state-bred allowance to open Grade I company in the Secretariat and while his speed rating last time in a nine-furlong event was his best, it is still well below the tops in the field and he will have to be quicker if he wants to finish in the top four. He tends to sit closer to the pace than most in the field and will have to prove his stamina in the last quarter-mile but he is lightly raced and improving and that can be dangerous if others have been worked too hard all season long.

Analysis-Jumps in class and might find this out of reach

Fair Odds-20/1

7-Yankee Baseball (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-TwinTowersRacing)

After winning his debut at MTH going short on the grass, Yankee Baseball has yet to find the winner’s circle in seven subsequent starts and although he was a game second in the American Derby over this same course, it might not be enough unless the pace up front completely falls apart. The winner of that race was right on the lead but was also the BC Juvenile Turf champion and the third-place finisher failed on the main track at SAR; not the best frame of reference for a colt who really has yet to come through and will be a short price off that big speed rating.

Analysis-Has yet to get the job done against this level

Fair Odds-10/1

8-Spazz (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Kopites)

Spazz has finished second in four of his last five starts including his first for the new barn and while that was a good effort at MTH, it will not be enough to place in the top four versus this field, let alone get the victory. His speed ratings are the lowest in the field and he does not have the workouts to back up his form so the hope is that he can find a good trip outside and maybe make run into midpack down the lane.

Analysis-Not in the same class as the top choices

Fair Odds-30/1

9-Yummy Opus (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Drabfantasy)

Yummy Opus tried to steal the Grade III Singspiel at WO last time out but found that 1 ½ mile trip a little too long and with the cutback in distance, he might be able to last better than many in the field with a closing fourth in the BEL on the main track as proof of his stamina. A two-time winner on the grass early in his career, he has been all over the map in terms of running style and that plays to his advantage, as others are proven on top while this colt can close from far back.

Analysis-Will run his race and play to others in the field

Fair Odds-8/1

Overall

As usual, Mb Stables has the top two choices in the Grade I Secretariat Stakes and with Aggravation and I Have Arrived, you have two classy colts with competing running style and the former looks to have the better chance of running down the speed at this Classic 1 ¼ mile distance. I Have Arrived will try to take the field gate to wire like he has in his last two starts but might find unneeded pressure up front to thwart his ability while Gallivant was excellent in the PEN Mile and might find enough late momentum to get past others for a minor award.

Prediction

Win-Aggravation (2/1)

Place-I Have Arrived (4/1)

Show-Gallivant (6/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES