Colin Stakes- $125.000 Purse
WO- For Two Year Olds
Six Furlongs on the Dirt
July 25, 2015

The nine runners in the 2015 Colin Stakes have a lot to live up to, as last year’s race was quite the spectacle.  While one of those twelve is no longer with us, and another has become a disappointing ex-DMR Trials winner, most of the others have gone on to great things.  The winner, Hawaiian Shirt Guy’s You Big Freak, has gone on to become a four-time graded stake winner, most recently taking the Grade 1 Dwyer at BEL.   The race also saw a couple of this year’s KYD runners, including Unsuited and Salt Lake City.   Rail Slide may have missed the BEL, but was in the PRK two weeks later.   Then consider Broomsticks Copy, who only beat one horse in this race last year, but went on to win the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf on Halloween later that year.  Macht Nichts has become a two time graded stake winner, and Plectrum is graded stake placed.   Go back on the list of other past winners, and the name Five Fives will immediately stand out at you.  It was just the second win of his glorious career.

That is the quality of runners that the Colin Stakes has had in the past.  As we look over this field of nine, you wonder is there a Five Fives here?  How many of these will be racing in KYD next year?  Who’s the one that’s going to disappoint to the point of deactivation as year later? We can gloss over the field and make predictions while throwing out words like potential for all of them.  Enjoy this early look at tomorrow’s superstars.

#1- The Punisher (Wolf Ridge Stables, ridden by E J Wilson)- Starting from the rail in the Colin Stakes is something that worked well for Five Fives in 2009, and Wolf Ridge Stables hopes that is the first of many future comparisons between the two.  The colt by Model American, a horse who ran 3rd in the BC Juvenile in his two-year old campaign, is 2-for-2 thus far in his career.  At PID in May, he shared a victory in his debut, but then followed that up with an outright win here at WO in an allowance.  In the win, he earned an 89-SRF, which is the second fastest recorded by any of these.  The Punisher puts the blinkers back on that he didn’t have in that race and is ready to be a contender in this one.

#2- Coup de Lyon (Nakamura Stables, ridden by D Moran)- No one in this field has earned a higher SRF figure then has Coup de Lyon, who received a 92 for his third place effort in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor in late June.  That is also the only time that any of these have attempted a stake, let alone a graded one, so it will be interesting to see if that experience helps him. I would anticipate that he is about to run a similar type of race based on his work times, so we’ll see how things carry over north of the border from that race.  Found it interesting that he worked at DMR as late as Monday, so there could be some finger crossing in regards to meters here.

#3- Dune Walking (Mo Mentum Farm, ridden J S McAleney)- After finally finding a trainer that wanted to put him on the race track, Dune Walking showed promise in winning his debut at ALB in late May in a good time for the track.   The Walkin Dead colt has been resting since that one, and has put together a couple works this month which may point to considerable improvement after that race.   While I would be surprised to see this one begin to run longer distances and become that TC contender mentioned in the opening, based on conformation, this type of race looks to be right in this wheelhouse, and if he has shown marked improvement since that win, he can win this.

#4- Hard Slider (Barcelona Farms, ridden by P Husbands)- So far, this is the only horse in this field to be gelded, having done so before he hit the race track.  He comes from the relatively unheralded sire Yard House, which some will say makes him a top KYD contender already.  He is flashing his potential to do exactly that early in his career, winning his debut race at GG before placing second in his last start in June, an allowance at CD.  Hard Slider will lose the lasix that he added for that race, and if a recent work at SA is an indication of improvement due to losing it, then he looks good.   This gelding appears to be one of the top contenders in this race.

#5- Lost Time (Timeless Inc, ridden by T Pizarro)- Optimistically placed in this one after being claimed for a mere $3.500 earlier this month.  This isn’t to say that we should not expect to see great things from Lost Time, because it looks to be an excellent claim by a trainer who’s own name makes this a perfectly named horse for the barn.  He worked well enough at SA, but doesn’t have enough public works.  What he does have for six furlongs, publicly, shows him to be a horse that will come up short here.  Those works were in May, and he has raced twice since then, so who knows what he has been doing on the farm.

#6- Wanted for Murder (Wynnewood, ridden by G Boulanger)- Hopefully, after making a considerable investment with this one, the pattern of sell, race, sell, race can be broken on this one’s past performances for a long time.   The Hollywood Moon colt was purchased by Wynnewood in April, and won his only race, which came at WO in a restricted race for ON-breds.  His works since that race are fantastic, and will get him right in the mix.  That said, he might have to show a little improvement from his last race to get a chance to be in the winner’s circle here.  I see him more as one to possibly get on the back end of a superfecta, then to put on top.

#7- Pretty Ghost (Hippyheart, ridden by Alan Garcia)- The trainer searches for his Pinnacle West of 2016 and will be looking to this Laffin Ghost foal to be one of those candidates.    He caught the trainer’s attention rather quickly, being purchased in private sales just a day after five furlong works could be run for $100.000.  That investment saw him win his maiden race in April, and he has not raced since.   All but two of his works since then have been on the farm, where we presume significant adds testing took place.  He comes out of that with a shadow roll and a nice six-furlong work at MTH on Tuesday.   Certainly, we should be expecting Pretty Ghost to be a player, though I wish I could see more publicly because it may have persuaded me to put him on top.

#8- No Tears For A Clown (Blushing Meadows, ridden by G L Olguin)- Seeing that this horse was purchased in the December auction for just $10.000, and then looking at his outstanding pedigree may make many trainers wonder where they were when this colt was on the clock.  Perhaps the lack of the word “ideal” on the conformation scared bidders away, but the trainer has no tears for those who missed their chance and has already made money on the investment in just the one race he has been in.  That was a MSW win at SA, not MNR or something small, by the way.  He hasn’t raced since that day in April, and the 4th place finisher at the DMR trials (remember a 3-year old was #1 there unfortunately) looks to make a nice step forward here.

#9- Double Jolly King (Gdp Inc, ridden by J Stein)- This trainer has a couple good two year olds in his pocket, and Double Jolly King will look to become another one for that list.  The name alludes to some inbreeding that went on with Jolly Be Great.  He has yet to win, with only one race in his career, a not inspiring 4th at EMD.  That was in May, and his public works show improvement of almost a second and a half since that race, making the race worthless to consider.   Maidens can win a race like this, but usually not when the field is as deep as this race is.  Worked nicely at PRX, with an eye opening 11 4/5 final furlong in a 6-furlong work.  Double Jolly King is going to do some great things, just not sure that will happen today.

Prediction: 1-4-2-6

— NS

Categories: Ungraded