September 12, 2015

Much like previous years, the Grade I Northern Dancer BC Turf stands alone as a race for horses prepping for the Grade I BC Turf and as such, has only attracted a field of six who opt to travel 1 ½ miles over the towering WO turf. With a purse of $300.000, below races like the Kentucky Cup Turf and the Grade I Hirsch Turf Classic, it has nonetheless garnered the attention of the defending champion and favourite in the BC Turf last year, as well as a Grade I AP Million winner, a Grade I Travers winner and a Grade I BEL Derby winner who all team up to make this a truly amazing cast of characters.

1-Turon Warrior (Four-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Canadian Racing)

Undefeated in six starts on grass going into the 2014 Northern Dancer, Turon Warrior came away with a masterful win by a length and while the road since then has not been easy, he still holds a huge advantage over many in this field with experience on the course and a huge last-out win to back up his talent. He was unable to quicken in the Grade I Manhattan two back but got up in the nick of time in the Grade II Sky Classic and now, gets back to his preferred distance with plenty of speed to his outside to chase.

Analysis-Defending champ should make another good account of himself

Fair Odds-2/1

2-Bombastic Kathology (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Oval Express Farms)

Unable to compete with three-year-olds all season long, Bombastic Kathology was much the best in the Grade I AP Million with a career-best effort from just off the pace and now, he gets to meet older runners again with that confidence builder under his belt. The speed rating was excellent, he has a workout over the turf getting ready and gets an excellent rider to guide him; all in all, not too shabby for a colt who finished well up the track in many of the TC preps this year.

Analysis-Turned it around at AP but can he do it again?

Fair Odds-6/1

3-Stormy Kg (Five-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
Stormy Kg loves to finish second, as he did in this race last year along with the Canadian International and the BC Turf, and with only one win from six starts this campaign, he will have to improve off a lackluster effort at AP if he hopes to hit the board against better. He won the Singspiel two back over this same course and distance but only earned a 90-speed rating and off that effort, and a tiring fifth as the favourite in the AP St Leger, he looks to be outclassed right now despite previous form that would make him a serious threat.

Analysis-Not one to back based on his recent form

Fair Odds-10/1

4-Dance Charm (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-Sarah Stables)

A wire-to-wire winner of the Grade II Whittingham three starts ago, Dance Charm finished up the track in both the United Nations and the AP Million against similar and will need to run back to his best at 1 ½ miles to hit the board. A change in jockey might help him find some more early speed but he seems to be one level below the best in this field and will be trying to secure a place early if he hopes to outlast others for a small share.

Analysis-Might not be quite at the Grade I level

Fair Odds-12/1

5-Sweet Son (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Australia Wide)

When you come from a top stable and know how to close at a marathon distance, the racing world starts to take notice quickly and Sweet Son is the type of horse who lacks experience but certainly seems to be rounding into form and would not be a surprise if he won the Northern Dancer. Only three starts into his career, he nearly caught Grade I winner Sri Lanka in the AP St Leger and although he is adept at setting the pace, he gets options on the outside and that could make him a dangerous sophomore to watch.

Analysis-The ultimate sleeper in a talented field

Fair Odds-5/1

6-Desolation Island (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

The big owners all come out to place at WO on Sunday and BEL Derby winner Desolation Island comes from one of the biggest barns, and that should allow him to overcome a lackluster effort in the Grade I Secretariat and earn another big cheque against top rivals. He has been blistering in workouts since finishing off the board last time out and a change of jockey, while not the best, is still advantageous if he hopes to sit just off the leaders and rocket down the long WO stretch.

Analysis-Needs to push forward just a little bit more

Fair Odds-8/1

Overall

Only two of the six entrants in the Grade I Northern Dancer BC Turf are coming in off victories and while Bombastic Kathology looked good in winning the AP Million, Turon Warrior was dynamic in taking down the Sky Classic and that gives him the big edge in this field, especially as he is also the defending champion going this distance. In between both of those in my Top 3 is Sweet Son, who could be a big spoiler for Australia Wide despite making only his fourth career start, and with only a single turf win to his credit as well.

Prediction

Win-Turon Warrior (2/1)

Place-Sweet Son (5/1)

Show-Bombastic Kathology (6/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES