The past few days we have seen discussion in the forums debating whether a variant works here at HRP and whether class really exists in the game. The first thing we’ll look at and go over is the variant because that is the basis or starting point to understand what is occurring in the game and if class exist. We’ll look at HRP numbers as well as calculate SRF figures in a few races.

The Variant

Track variants are values that are assigned to a particular race or set of races on the same track and the same day to indicate how much should be added or subtracted from the actual final time (for speed) for comparison with times achieved by other horses in other races.

At HRP there are two sets of figures published, the HRP figures and the SRF figures. The HRP figures are calculated just like the Daily Racing Forms figures for the track. Example: If a 6f race is run in 1:10 and the track record is 1:09 then the horse is given a 95-5 meaning he ran five points off the track record with the difference of 5 points. So based on that if there were four races at the same distance that day and times were

 1:10  95-5

1:10.8  91-9 

1:11 90-10

1:09.8  96-4

We then would add up the points off the track record. In this case they are 5+9+10+4=28. From there you divide by four to get an average of a 7 for the distance that day. Results would be:

95-7

91-7

90-7

96-7

what that tells you is that for the day the track was off by 7 point average that is all it is stating.

However, there is a big piece of the puzzle missing. What was the class of horses that established the figure? Were they claimers, maidens, Allowance, Stakes, sAlwN2X etc?  This must be taken into consideration when establishing a variant. Class is based on race conditions; every race is listed with certain conditions to run in them. That could be from ALW 4yo Up to a CLM10.00 3yo F N2L to MCL5.00  The SRF figures like the Beyers or Bris figures takes this into account. To ensure an accurate variant they must be considered. It’s like working in a lab. I worked for a petroleum testing lab. In running test some were some required 4 or 5 steps to get to accurate results. Through experience you learn that you can get a good result within repeatability in three steps. However, to ensure the most accuracy you must complete all steps. Same with the variant, race conditions are vital for an accurate variant figure and in the process establish class.

We’re going to take a look at PRX from 4/13/22 there were three 6f races run that day.

Note: the SRF uses 1:08 as the base number for 6f, this is used at all tracks. This eliminates the need to add or subtract 5ths of seconds with each track record. In the end the horse is receiving the exact same speed figure it would receive using the track record..

OK we’ll figure the races below based on conditions/class.

For each race class a number is assigned (the lower the number the higher the class) with additional criteria  adjustments for age, sex, race condition, track, etc.

4/13/22 PRX (1:08.38)

Race #3 13:35 MdSpWt42.00
6 Furlongs Dirt Maiden Special Weight Purse $42.00 Open 3 Year Olds.

Fin Time 1:09.24  

Class for MSW is a +9 points, for 3yo at distance this time of year is a 3, racetrack is a level 1 established by HRP    

Add up 9+3+1= 13 you then add the 13 (class) to the raw race time 1:09.24 = 94.

13+94=107                                                                                                                                                                                           

Race #5 14:15 Clm20.00N1Y
6 Furlongs Dirt Claiming Purse $24.00 Open 3 Year Olds And Up.

Fin Time 1:08.85

CL20.00 for 3yup is 9, Racetrack-1 this adds up to 10

10+96=106

Race #7 14:55 fAlw42.00N1X
6 Furlongs Dirt Allowance Purse $42.00 Filly 3 Year Olds.

Fin Time 1:09.39     

Class ALW=3, N1X=3, 3yo filly=2, 3yo distance=2 Track=1

3+3+2+2+1=11

11+94=105 

Note: all races should calculate within 5 points of each other, any outliers will not be used be used in the variant calculation.

You now add up the three races, 107+106+105=318 /3 =106

Anything over 100 is a negative variant.

The variant is a negative 6 for the day giving the winners the following SRF speed figures.      

Race#3  88

Race#5  90

Race#7  88

This is where I believe the question of class comes into the picture. If one looks just at the HRP figures they all display high figure even though there are difference of classes. But to look straight at them you can say all horses are pretty look much the same and have led to some conclusions that all horses are about the same in the game with very little class involved. I believe this could not be further from the truth.

HRP

Race#3  97-4

Race#5  98-4

Race#7  95-4

There are some fundamental differences in the two sets of figures. However, I believe that all factors should be must taken into consideration when trying to obtain an accurate tight variant. I believe the SRF figures handle this best but in the end it’s up to the individual to choose what to use or whether to use them. We have been questioned in the past that sometimes the figures look low but again the main factor is class and the race engine produces those fast times with negative variants becoming more of a commonplace here at HRP than at anytime in the past. The SRF figure obtained whether a positive variant or a negative variant is an accurate figure.

Race Engine Woes

I believe there is a flaw in the race engine, my opinion, I cannot prove that. However, I don’t just say that to be saying it. Many in the game have been complaining for quite awhile, some of it justified some not. What I’ve noticed is that in virtually every race the last race fraction/portion of a race is run very fast. Horses are finishing the final quarter mile in 24 or less seconds. Rarely does this happen in the RL. We’re talking both front runner and closers. It seems to me there is a big push by the engine to finish races and in the process has led to a flaw in the race engine itself. What is the reason? It could be to keep fields tighter and more competitive at the end. Or to keep horse from slowing too much thus losing by many lengths. Again, I’m just stating Race times here at HRP, no matter what track races are run fast. Small tracks like DeD and SUN can run just as fast times as a major track this is what leads to negative variants. Seems track configuration has no bearing on the game physics and lends to some unrealistic times. In the RL some tracks are very fast while others inherently slow. It is my opinion that this issue needs to be addressed by HRP if one wants more realistic racing.

In closing this week, the question was, is there class at HRP? In my opinion the answer is yes, there is class in the races here. We enter our horses based on race criteria of class and conditions where we feel best fits them to have a chance to win. That is the essence of class. The variant is obtained by race class and conditions of that race. We learned don’t be fooled by fast or false race times and expect a high speed figure, the engine is jacked up right now especially during the last segment of a race. The variant is the key to sorting what is fast and what is negative or slow. The figures clarify speed, class and ability of each horse.     

Next week we’ll look at a few races and handicap them, we’ll also introduce SRF Speed Pace figures.            

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES