Northern Dancer BC Turf (Grade 1)- $300.000 Purse
WO- For Three Year Olds and Upward
One Mile and One Half on the Turf
September 17, 2016

A powerful field of turf stars has assembled this Saturday for the 11th running of the Northern Dancer BC Turf, including the last two winners of this very race.  The race is a Grade 1 up at WO, running twelve furlongs on the grass.  It’s been run for higher purses before, including $750.000 back in the days of Bronze Sabre and Charming Behrens, so it is disappointing to see this edition be less then half that, especially given the quality of talent.  Two of the runners in this race have won this race before, including last year’s winner, Desolation Island, and 2014 winner Turon Warrior.  If one of them win again, they will join Bronze Sabre as they only two time winners of the race, and that’s some pretty special company to be a part of!  They will have it tough though, as there are ten others in this field who are very capable of knocking them off, and that’s just not a disclaimer to make everyone else feel good.   Ok, so maybe two in this field are making a big jump, but both of them are very capable based on their recent results.  This field is star-laden, so let’s take a look.

#1- Moms Guy (Yahudi Stables, ridden by J J Castellano)- We start on the rail with this gelding by Shy Guy, who is coming off a win in the Grade 3 AP Handicap in early July.  It was his seventh career win, and second time winning a graded event in his 28-race career.  He did run in the BC Mile last year, but was 12th (though just two lengths back in one of those classic virtual finishes we all love!)  He’s won three of four since then, but it does get your attention that he was only racing in open allowance in the BC before taking on the AP Handicap two months ago.  Only in a race with this caliber of competition does that look like a weak resume.  He can get it done here and get his signature result against the best as well.

#2- Volare (Axeman, ridden by T McCarthy)- As this six year old mare gets set to take on the boys, you can’t help but at least wonder for a second why she is not down at the Sands Point running for a higher purse against her gender.  Of course, it’s easy to wonder that immediately after you just wrote up a preview for the Sands Point! The obvious answer is distance, as Volare doesn’t want to stop after nine furlongs.  The run at the Grade 2 NY likely proves the trainer’s point, but it would have been thrilling to see her closing with Congratulations and Smokin Nebulae!  Instead, the boys will have to deal with her looking to do the same thing, and she nearly did similar in her last start, running second against males in the Grade 2 St Leger Stakes, topping Turon Warrior and Party Prep in the process.   She has won multiple graded stakes over her career, but never a Grade 1.

#3- Spanish Showboat (Mb Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- It’s back to the turf for this six year old gelding who has participated in each of the last three years in the BC.  Lately we have seen Spanish Showboat on the main track, including the Pacific Classic at DMR last month, but for the first time in a while, he was not a factor in a race that day.  This year as seen him win two of five races, including the Grade 2 San Marcos out at SA early in the season.   He’s running against several in here that he has seen before, and has had both success and defeat against them.  I don’t see a reason to be negative about him, but he is going to have to run his very best here, due to the caliber of opposition he faces.  Old school turf fans will like seeing Spanish Showboat and Turon Warrior battle again!

#4- Phooeys Warrior (Blushing Meadows, ridden by P Lopez)- This will be the turf debut for Phooeys Warrior, and he’s certainly going to have it tough as he goes up against some true stars. That is not meant to imply that he can’t have a chance, because he’s run well in his last two, both the G2 Dandy and the G1 Pacific Classic, with 4th and 6th place results in those, respectively.   If he’s meant to run on the turf all along, then he will certainly be able to run with Spanish Showboat, who he was better then in the Pacific Classic.   This is one of those two horses I was referencing in the opening about maybe seeming outmatched based on their resumes, but is still plenty capable to get it done.

#5- I Have Arrived (Mb Stables, ridden by R J Albarado)- The second of three in this field that Mb Stables will bring to the starting gate, and they are all well accomplished.  Although, if you put I Have Arrived’s past numbers against Spanish Showboat and Desolation Island, it might not seem that way.  Simply put, I Have Arrived, has arrived.   The three year old has three wins in eight starts, and is just now getting into the best form.   Two races ago, she won the Grade 3 Kent Stakes at DEL, then in her last start, earned a hard fought third in the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes.  He’ll like that weight allowance, and is going to be a force here.

#6- Turon Warrior (Canadian Racing, ridden by J S McAleney)– It’s hard to believe that Turon Warrior could still be looking for his first win of the season, as after a fifth place run in the BC Turf last year, he still seemed as though he was going to be racking up the victories.  His best run this year was in his last start, when he was third in the AP St. Leger Stakes, but he was beaten by Volare in that.  He is certainly due to return to the winners circle, and maybe when he catches a glimpse of his old rival, Spanish Showboat, he will be able to rediscover some of that winning form that we know he has.

#7- Desolation Island (Mb Stables, ridden by D Moran)- After narrowly missing in the BC Turf last year, and finishing second, Desolation Island has been able to have a steady year, with two wins in six starts.  One of them was his open allowance refresher in January, and his year was made in April when he shared a win in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile with the legendary Jamfest.   Since then, he’s winless in his last three, which as a credit to him, is actually his longest winless streak of his career!   You have to love his consistency, and I do think he is really going to like returning to this distance.  In a race that is so loaded with talent, you have to like a horse that knows how to get it done consistently against top of the line opposition.

#8- Two Brushes (Drabfantasy, ridden by R Bejarano)- Trainer and jockey picked up a big win last weekend together, and you have to think that this would be even a bigger victory if Two Brushes is able to pull it off.  The three year old has just one win, his maiden at TAM before jumping right in to graded competition.  Like it usually does, this has worked out for the trainer as far as getting paychecks in races he has been in, but he has not been back to the winners circle. He’s a longshot here, but if he wanted the distance, those work times are very strong.

#9- Host (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by G L Stevens)- Unless the trainer is planning on a tactical change, something which actually might be a good possibility, we can anticipate that Host will have them running quickly early.  This three year old likes to jump out to the lead and is not afraid to open up and then try to hang on.  He’s also very raw, still.  Back in June, he went a similar distance and tried to run this style in an allowance, and nearly did so.  Since then, he has attempted the Queens Plate, so in that alone, we know he is improving.  His past performances aren’t at the level of others, but no one better be sleeping right out of the gate.

#10- Foggy Vision (Sanny Village, ridden by J Rosario)- After some good runs last year, which were highlighted by a victory Grade 2 DMR Derby last September, Foggy Vision has been lightly raced as a four year old.  He went nearly a full six months without a race after the Hill Prince when he returned in late March in an optional claimer.  Then, it was another three months off.   It looks like he is fully back now, and he’s run rather well in a couple AP starts, taking second in the AP Handicap (Grade 3) in July, then running fourth last month in the prestigious AP Million.  While he was beaten by Desolation Island, he was able to defeat the likes of Seven Years, Bombastic Kathology, and Grande Sournoise.  He’ll be a threat.

#11- Party Prep (Kopites, ridden by J S Rocco Jr)- After being claimed from A And I Stables for $62.500, Kopites wasted no time putting Party Prep out there in the AP St. Leger Stakes, and he would run fifth, though third of the three that are also in this field that he faced that day.  Now, the trainer has a little more time with Party Prep, and I expect that factor to benefit his chances here on Saturday.  He’s had a solid career, winning seven of 17, and does have a graded win under identical conditions, coming in the Grade 3 Louisville Handicap in May.  Party Prep won’t be the top choice, but he’ll be right there with everyone else.

#12- Cju (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by J R Velazquez)- We round out our run through the field with a four year old autogen who is coming off a huge win.   Right here at WO last month, Cju made his turf debut at a 1 1/4 in the Grade 2 Sky Classic Stakes, taking on a smaller, but well accomplished field.   In it, he went right out to the lead, and never looked back over the course of the ten furlongs.  He likes to get out to the lead, but he might not want to chase the speedball Host that much, and hopefully for both of the trainers involved the two of them can run a sensible pace.  His key will be the pace, because there is plenty of closing speed coming in this field.  He’ll have to make that oft-talked about outside push work out!

Prediction: 2-7-3-6

— NS

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES