BC Turf (Grade 1)- $4,000.000 Purse
KEE- For Three Year Olds and Upward
One Mile and One Half on the Turf
November 7, 2020
It is the biggest race of the year for turf horses, as the annual BC Turf brings together the best of the division. Its purse is the second largest of any that will run over the weekend, offering $4,000.000 to be divided among the top four finishers. We have seen greatness win this race in the past, as one of the best horses in the game of all time, Bronze Sabre, won the stake in consecutive years, from 2009 and 2010. Dogma has been to the winners circle here, as well as Siberian Rhythm, Tundra Kenny, and Clockwork Chai. Last year, the race was won by trainer John Henry and his gelding Dead Madness. It has not been a smooth year for the horse, but by winning the Arlington Million in August, he will have a chance to join Bronze Sabre for the distinction of winning the race in back to back years. He’ll have a tough group to do it against, and he might not even be the best horse that John Henry is bringing to the race. More about them, and everyone else as we take this look through the field!
#1- Immoral (Mb Stables, ridden by J Lezcano)- We begin this preview with one of the better horses in this field. Immoral comes into the race with three wins in his last four races, and they represent the only times he has run on the grass. He was on the TC trail initially, and ran in the PRK before eventually converting to grass. This worked well, as he won the Grade 1 BEL Derby, then was second in the Arlington Million to Dead Madness. Not to worry, because he bounced back by winning both the KY Turf Cup and the Grade 1 Hirsch Turf Classic. You can say then, that he has been almost perfect on the grass. His running style has historically been to come from off the pace, so the story for him will be what kind of trip he has from the rail.
#2- Workload (Mb Stables, ridden by Mar Garcia)- The second of three horses in the field from Mb Stables, and like Immoral, he was sired by No Doubt About It. He’s run against his stablemate before, and finished one position behind him, third, in the Arlington Million. His biggest win this year was the Grade 2 Read Stakes at DMR, and comes into the race off a second place run in the Pattison. We can probably throw out the Henry Championship, because I would not expect him to be on the lead like he was there.
#3- Hammerfest (Smokey Stover, ridden by J R Velazquez)- This gelding has done a good job of being able to hit the board in the graded ranks, placing second in the WO Mile and third in the BEL Derby, among similar results in a couple others. However, he has not won a stake since almost a year ago when he took a FL-bred stake at CRC. Against this type of quality, it is hard to take a horse like that, especially when you see that a couple of his in the money finishes weren’t exactly being a part of a classic HRP-cluster finish at the end.
#4- Xmas Snow (Maxmillion Farm, ridden by A Beschizza)- Maxmillion is rightfully regarded as one of the top turf horses in the game. However, to be the king of the turf, he needs to win this race. So, his name is notably absent from the list of prior BC Turf winners. He has just this one chance to do it here, with Xmas Snow. The five year old gelding gives him a decent shot, as he has won two big races this year, starting in the winter with the Pegasus World Cup Turf, and later taking the Grade 1 Manhattan. Was fourth in the Arlington Million, and his last race is obviously a throw out. Perhaps the time will come here for Maxmillion to win this race.
#5- Controlled Power (Spankys Barn, ridden by D Van Dyke)- The six year old gelding has had a great career, but it is going to take a reversal of recent form in order to have a chance in this race. Two of his last three races have seen him well behind the winner at the end, but in between them, he showed what he still could do when he ran third in the Grade 2 Henry Championship. Can he dig down, and pull off another race like that?
#6- Chayse (Crocker Ggs, ridden by J Stein)- Another horse in the field that needs to change his recent fortunes around. Chayse has done good things in his career, and 2020 started out very well with back to back wins in a pair of Grade 2’s: the San Marcos and the Pan American. From June onward, however, Chayse has not been anywhere near the front, and it is hard to feel good about him because of it.
#7- Dead Madness (John Henry, ridden by M Tunon)- Last year, Dead Madness went to the lead and went wire to wire over the mile and a half. Afterwards, the results did not go well, as he had hard to figure out flat performance in the Pegasus World Cup Turf, and two starts after that, was not a factor in the Pan American. After that race, the tide began to turn, and Dead Madness began to look like a BC Champion once again. In August, he won the Arlington Million, which was contested on soft turf, in a manner completely opposite to the way he won the BC Turf, coming from well off the pace. Just when you wanted to get excited again, he pulled a no show in the Hirsch Turf Classic. Don’t rule out a horse that has done it before, but if I am going to pick a John Henry horse, it is going to be his stablemate, who is…
#8- Winter Solstice (John Henry, ridden by S R Bahen)- The baton might have been handed over in the John Henry barn this BC Turf to Winter Solstice, a five year old gelding who did run in this race as well last year. That was his debut for John Henry, and it did not go well, but unlike Dead Madness, he did start off 2020 well. He has hit the board in six of seven races, with the better of those races coming when the turf was firm. Most recently, he won the Grade 2 Henry Championships at SA. He simply seems like a more consistent and more reliable horse to get behind here than Dead Madness is.
#9- Raj Action Packed (Arindel, ridden by D Davis)- A veteran seven year old gelding that makes his 48th career start, and his second start in the BC Turf. In 2019, he was sixth in this race. He won two races early this year, highlighted by the Grade 2 Diarmida at GP, but has been very inconsistent since then, and his last two races do not create optimism. If there is a silver lining here for the trainer, it is that he is due for one of his good races. Will the Raj Action Packed from the Grade 2 Bowling Green show up? He did have D Davis aboard in it.
#10- Billy Joel (La Canada Racehorses, ridden by R Bejarano)- Not quite as successful as the human that goes by this name, but the equine version has been very productive this season, and perhaps has been under the radar a little bit, as evidenced by consistently going off at odds in the double digits. Perhaps the best decision the trainer made with this horse came in early April, when he would be gelded. Since then, Billy Joel has been a hit, winning four out of six, with a second place mixed in. The biggest result there was the Grade 1 Hirsch Turf Classic, also his last start, a race that he was near the lead early, and took control in the stretch. If those odds get anywhere near the double digits again, which they really shouldn’t, then he is a must-play. The human’s music, also is.
#11- Blame It On Luck (Mb Stables, ridden by J Bisono)- The gelding by Slither has won four of sixteen, but has generally been better in his career getting some piece of the purse. He does have one recent win, however, taking the Grade 2 Bowling Green at SAR narrowly over Raj Action Packed in August. Otherwise, you’re looking at a horse that got here thanks to consistency, but will need to be a little better than he was in the Hirsch Turf Classic. There was nothing that bad with it, but better is needed to win the BC Turf.
#12- Multiple Shadows (Our Athletes, ridden by F Geroux)- Multiple shadows for multiple personalities. That has been the story of this colt’s career, with strong performances and poor ones mixed in. His last six races see two wins, one second, and then a tenth, eleventh, and twelfth. The highlight of that stretch was the win in the Grade 2 Wise Dan, at CD in June. He was then good in the Sword Dancer, but showed his other side in the Shadwell, his most recent race. I’ll have to pass.
#13- Momentus (Fractious, ridden by D E Centeno)- On the first of November, prior trainer Mb Stables sold Momentus off to Fractious for $300.000 as he was victimised by the game’s unfortunate rule that limits a trainer to three entries. His loss will be Fractious’ gain as that trainer gets a spot here in the race. As for Momentus, he has two wins in seven races, but also quite a bit of inconsistency, and that is with throwing out his last race, which was a sprint.
#14- Sunlander (Estero Farms, ridden by Mario Gutierrez)- Finally, out here on the outside, we have the reigning winner of the Grade 1 Pattison from WO. It is his only win of this year, but also the only time he has run a full twelve furlongs in 2020. In other races at a close distance, he looked like he might just need a little more distance, as he is a horse that likes to come from behind. His other race at this distance was the $1000.000 JC Derby in 2019, a weird race that we all remember, and he was second. He is worth a lot of consideration.
Prediction: 10-1-8-14
— NS
Categories: BC 2018-20, Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP
