The $250.000 SUN Oaks takes place at Sunland Park on Sunday, February 15, 2026, presenting a one-mile test on the main dirt track for three-year-old fillies seeking valuable Kentucky Oaks qualifying points. As one of the important developmental stakes events on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, this race has a storied history dating back to 2012 and has been won the last three years by Shericka (2025), Awesome Angel (2024), and Balius (2023). Mb Stables has won five editions (2015, 2017, 2019, 2022) and fields multiple entries seeking to add a sixth victory to their tally, while D J C Racing Stables has won twice (2013, 2020). Rafael Bejarano has won this race twice (2013, 2015) and rides Western Espresso, seeking to add a third SUN Oaks victory. The race has attracted a competitive field of ten talented three-year-old fillies, each seeking to add their names to this prestigious list of winners and earn crucial Kentucky Oaks qualifying points as the Road to the Kentucky Oaks intensifies.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

Ice Water represents Maxmillion Farm with Jose Lezcano (20/1 odds) in the irons. This gray three-year-old filly by Fire N Fury has won one of one career starts while earning $39.000, posting her best speed figure of 96. Her only career start came on April 5, 2025, at Santa Anita where she won a maiden special weight at 4 1/2 furlongs by a neck, carrying 118 pounds. She was sold for $150.000 in late January 2025. Her recent workouts show solid preparation, including a six-furlong work in 1:11 at Fair Grounds on February 9. While she’s shown quality form with her impressive maiden victory and 96 speed figure, her complete lack of racing experience since last April with just one career start and no stakes or route racing experience suggest she faces a major challenge against proven runners in this competitive field.

Follow The Queen represents La Canada Racehorses with Shaun Bridgmohan (8/1 odds) guiding this chestnut three-year-old filly by Zionist. With three wins, one second, and two thirds from six career starts and earnings of $174.680, she enters off a victory on January 11 at Santa Anita at one mile by one length in optional claiming company, carrying 119 pounds. Prior to that on November 29, she won the Grade 3 Durant Stakes at Del Mar at one mile on turf by a head. Earlier on October 29, she won a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs at 1 1/16 miles on good turf by two lengths. Her recent workouts show excellent preparation, including a six-furlong work in 1:10.3 at Santa Anita on January 31. Her proven effectiveness at one mile with multiple stakes victories including her recent Durant Stakes win and solid dirt form make her a legitimate threat, though most of her success has come on turf which raises questions about surface versatility.

Neon Damascus represents Mb Stables with Paco Lopez (5/1 odds) aboard this bay three-year-old filly by Neon Drifter. With three wins, one second, and one third from nine career starts and earnings of $123.880, she enters off a victory on January 19 in the $80.000 New Mexico-bred La Senora Stakes at Sunland Park at six furlongs by one length, carrying 120 pounds. Prior to that on December 30, she finished sixth in the $75.000 Parx Futurity Filly at seven furlongs. Earlier on November 24, she finished second in the $150.000 New Mexico-bred NM Champions Las Senoritas Stakes at Zia Park. Her recent workouts show solid preparation, including a six-furlong work in 1:11.1 at Santa Anita on February 8. While she’s shown quality form with consecutive New Mexico-bred stakes placings and her recent Sunland Park stakes victory, her modest speed figures and complete lack of open company stakes experience raise questions about whether she can compete with the top contenders.

Contangle represents Nakamura Stables with Ivan Castillo (10/1 odds) riding this black three-year-old filly by Con West. With two wins and one second from five career starts and earnings of $71.800, she enters off a fifth-place finish on January 17 in the $150.000 Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds at 170 yards, carrying 122 pounds. Prior to that on December 30, she finished second by a neck in the $75.000 Parx Futurity Filly at seven furlongs. Earlier on November 15, she finished fourth in the $100.000 Anoakia Stakes at Del Mar at seven furlongs. Her recent workouts show excellent preparation, including a bullet six-furlong work in 1:11.1 at Sunland Park on February 10. While she’s shown quality form with multiple stakes placings including her recent Parx Futurity runner-up finish, her disappointing Silverbulletday Stakes effort and lack of a stakes victory raise questions about whether she can break through against this competitive field.

Influence Seeker represents Mb Stables with Johnny Velazquez (7/1 odds) guiding this gray three-year-old filly by Political Pressure. With three wins, three seconds, and two thirds from nine career starts and earnings of $421.920, she brings exceptional credentials to this assignment. Her most recent outing on January 15 at Turf Paradise saw her win at 7 1/2 furlongs on turf by three lengths in optional claiming company, carrying 118 pounds. Prior to that on December 14, she finished second at Gulfstream Park at one mile on turf in optional claiming company. Earlier on October 31, she finished sixth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar at one mile on turf, and on September 13, she won the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine at one mile on turf by a nose. Her recent workouts show solid preparation, including a six-furlong work in 1:11.1 at Santa Anita on February 8. Her proven stakes-winning form with her Natalma Stakes victory and graded stakes experience make her a serious threat, though all of her success has come on turf and she makes her dirt debut in this assignment, which raises significant questions about surface versatility.

Techno Baby represents The Sidley Stud with Manuel Franco (12/1 odds) aboard this bay three-year-old filly by Techfluence Heat. With two wins, one second, and one third from seven career starts and earnings of $72.300, she enters off a fifth-place finish on December 6 in the Grade 2 Starlet Stakes at Los Alamitos at 1 1/16 miles, carrying 120 pounds. Prior to that on November 2, she finished sixth in the Grade 3 Mazarine Breeders’ Cup Stakes at Woodbine at 1 1/16 miles. Earlier on October 11, she won the $75.000 West Virginia Triple Crown Breeders Classic at Charles Town at 6 1/2 furlongs by 1/2 lengths. Her recent workouts show solid preparation, including a one-mile work in 1:37.3 at Parx Racing on February 2. While she’s shown quality form with her West Virginia-bred stakes victory, her disappointing recent efforts in graded stakes company raise questions about whether she can compete with proven runners at this level.

Monarchy represents Mo Mentum Farm with Victor Espinoza (6/1 odds) riding this chestnut three-year-old filly by History. With two wins from two career starts and earnings of $74.250, she enters off a victory on December 30 in the $75.000 Parx Futurity Filly at seven furlongs by a neck, carrying 121 pounds. Prior to that on November 23, she won a New York-bred maiden special weight at Woodbine at six furlongs by two lengths. Her recent workouts show excellent preparation, including a bullet four-furlong work in :45.3 at Santa Anita on February 4. While she’s undefeated with two victories from two starts and posted solid speed figures including a 93 in the Parx Futurity Filly, her limited racing experience with just two career starts and lack of route racing experience raise questions about whether she can handle the step up to one mile against proven stakes runners.

Do Not Disturb represents Panionios Racing with Dylan Davis (4/1 odds) guiding this chestnut three-year-old filly by Archimedes. With two wins and three seconds from eight career starts and earnings of $124.960, she enters off a victory on January 1 at Gulfstream Park at one mile by 1/2 lengths in the $150.000 Cash Run Stakes, carrying 121 pounds. Prior to that on November 29, she finished sixth in the Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill Downs at 1 1/16 miles. Earlier on October 22, she finished second by a nose at Finger Lakes at six furlongs in allowance company. Her recent workouts show excellent preparation, including a six-furlong work in 1:10.4 at Sunland Park on February 5. Her proven effectiveness at one mile with her recent Cash Run Stakes victory and consistent form make her a serious threat, though her disappointing Golden Rod Stakes effort raises questions about her ability to handle top-level competition.

Hot Bobbygum represents Williams9 with Robby Alvarado (15/1 odds) aboard this bay three-year-old filly by Racing Plate. With one win, two seconds, and one third from seven career starts and earnings of $92.700, she enters off a sixth-place finish on January 17 in the $150.000 Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds at 170 yards, carrying 122 pounds. Prior to that on January 3, she finished third by a head in the $100.000 Santa Ynez Stakes at Santa Anita at seven furlongs. Earlier on November 25, she finished second in an allowance race at Parx Racing at 5 1/2 furlongs. Her recent workouts show solid preparation, including a one-mile work in 1:37.4 at Gulfstream Park on February 6. While she’s shown quality form with multiple stakes placings, her lack of a stakes victory and disappointing recent efforts raise questions about whether she can compete with proven stakes winners.

Western Espresso represents Nakamura Stables with Rafael Bejarano (3/1 odds) completing the field for this black three-year-old filly by Con West. With three wins, one second, and one third from five career starts and earnings of $133.770, she brings exceptional credentials to this assignment. Her most recent outing on January 17 at Fair Grounds saw her win the $150.000 Silverbulletday Stakes at 170 yards by 3/4 lengths, carrying 122 pounds. Prior to that on December 27, she finished third at Santa Anita at one mile on soft turf in the $100.000 Bob Norris Stakes. Earlier on November 29, she won a New York-bred optional claiming race at Woodbine at one mile on turf by 1/2 lengths, and on October 15, she won a maiden special weight at Belterra Park at one mile by five lengths. Her recent workouts show excellent preparation, including a bullet one-mile work in 1:37.1 at Sunland Park on February 2. Her proven effectiveness at one mile with her recent Silverbulletday Stakes victory and consistent form make her a serious threat, and the partnership with two-time SUN Oaks winner Bejarano adds significant appeal.

Pace Scenario and Prediction

The pace structure should develop with Monarchy, Neon Damascus, and Techno Baby likely battling for the early lead, all having demonstrated consistent gate speed and the ability to set or press the pace. Western Espresso, Do Not Disturb, and Follow The Queen have shown tactical speed to stalk just behind the leaders, while Influence Seeker, Contangle, Hot Bobbygum, and Ice Water will likely settle in mid-pack or come from off the pace before attempting their late rallies.

The projected winner is Western Espresso, who brings the best combination of proven stakes-winning form, route racing experience, and the partnership with two-time SUN Oaks winner Rafael Bejarano to this assignment. Her victory in the Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds demonstrated her ability to handle quality competition at a route distance, and while that race was at 170 yards rather than a full mile, her consistent route racing success on both dirt and turf suggests she should handle this distance effectively. The daughter of Con West possesses tactical versatility and has proven effective both when stalking the pace and when rallying from off the pace. With Bejarano able to position her perfectly in the early stages before unleashing her finishing kick, Western Espresso should have every opportunity to capture her second stakes victory and earn crucial Kentucky Oaks qualifying points. Do Not Disturb appears the most dangerous threat with her proven effectiveness at one mile and recent Cash Run Stakes victory, though her disappointing Golden Rod Stakes effort raises concerns about consistency. Follow The Queen could factor with her multiple stakes victories including the Durant Stakes and solid one-mile form, while Monarchy, Influence Seeker, and Neon Damascus round out the contenders with varying degrees of probability in this competitive Kentucky Oaks prep race.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded