The Seeking The Ante

SAR   Race 6    6f Dirt Purse $200.00  For Fillies 2yo Foaled In NY

1 — Whats Wrong (Mb Stables)

• Record: 2 starts – 1 win
• Best fig: 90
• Style: Midpack → strong finish
• Key race: Won SAR MSW with a sharp :22 / :45 pace.
• Works: 1:11 PRX, 1:12 AQU — excellent 6f drills
• Assessment: Improving rapidly, big barn, strong late kick. This filly by the great Tactical hails from the barn we all aspire to be, drawn the ace that may or may not be an advantage if she slips off the pace too far but with the race engine seemingly fanning horses down the stretch she could stick to the rail and find the dream run.
• Chance: High — could upset with another step forward.

2 — Hanalei Pier (Our Athletes)

• Record: 2 starts – 1 win
• Best fig: 95
• Style: Front-running speed
• Key race: Won CD MSW wire-to-wire (:22 / :45).
• Works: Solid SAR drills, not blazing.
• Assessment: Fastest early of the group; must avoid pace meltdown. Draws perfectly for his on pace style but she wont want too much pressure early.
• Chance: High — if she clears, she’s dangerous.

3 — Curly Hair Katherine (Night Rider Stables)

• Record: 3 starts – 1 win
• Best fig: 91
• Style: Off the pace
• Key race: Won AQU MSW; struggled in stakes company.
• Works: Mixed; latest SAR 5f 1:01.2 is okay.
• Assessment: Honest but needs improvement to beat top two. Gets her best draw so far so maybe we will see some improvement after the draw forced her into a non start last time.
• Chance: Moderate

4 — Miss Wicked (TwinTowersRacing)

• Record: 4 starts – 1 win, 1 second
• Best fig: 94
• Style: Stalker
• Key race: 4th in Adirondack (G3) — major class edge
• Works: 6f in 1:11 at SAR — elite
• Assessment: Proven graded form, strong works, versatile. Her running style is the biggest issue here but with this race engine and the gaming buttons who knows what will happen today. If she sticks to her pattern so far she will be arriving late on the scene, we all know how the AI struggles with that algorithm.
• Chance: Very High — one of the two most likely winners.

5 — Zuzus Petals (Big Jd Racing)

• Record: 3 starts – 1 win, 1 third
• Best fig: 95
• Style: Tactical speed
• Key race: 3rd in Adirondack (G3) — best stakes finish in field
• Works: Consistent 1:11–1:12 range
• Assessment: Best combination of class + consistency. She has a lot of pluses here with an on speed running style and proven ability. She raced from the car park in the Adirondack, went hard and still managed third so that is a big form pointer for a race like this. Well into her campaign her works haven’t shown the improvement I would like but the works engine is notoriously inconsistent with race performance these days so I wont read too much into that.
• Chance: Very High — arguably the most reliable filly.

6 — Taurasi (D J C Racing Stables)

• Record: 2 starts – 1 win
• Best fig: 92
• Style: Pressing
• Key race: Won FL MSW with a gritty finish.
• Works: BEL 6f in 1:12–1:23 — solid.
• Assessment: Talented but lightly tested; big jump needed. Gets her chance here to step up but may find it tough from this sticky draw. There will be pressure on the front end so she will need to take a pull to have a chance down the stretch.
• Chance: Moderate

7 — Speedy Heat (The Sidley Stud)

• Record: 3 starts – 1 win, 1 third
• Best fig: 87
• Style: Midpack
• Key race: 4th in My Dear Stakes (WO).
• Works: MTH 6f 1:11–1:12 — strong.
• Assessment: Good works but hasn’t shown stakes-level punch yet although was given no chance by the race engine in the My Dear. A top trainer, she wont be here to make up the numbers but jumping from wide and likely to go back she will need all favors from the race engine.
• Chance: Low–Moderate

Race Summary

A tough race to call but a shorter field makes it a bit easier. I think it will be between the two Adirondack runners and the two big ticket maiden winners. Miss Wicked and Zuzus Petals have completely opposite running styles which resulted in a one up for Zuzus Petals in their last start, I guess the race engine will decide how they fare today.  Out of the two maiden winners Whats Wrong may be suited better by the trip and should get a dream run so lets go with her as the top choice of those two, who interestingly also have the same contrast in running styles.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded