Will Paco rise to the occasion again, or get shook under the pressure of Orange Chicken?

Two year olds take the gates at Churchill Downs for their first graded stakes of the year. Summertime beneath the twin spires represents excitement and hope. Small and large stables alike have been preparing for this moment for over six months. 

Since the DMR Trials, chatter about top working two year olds have filled the forums and chatroom. Each week we saw the trainer of a highly touted two-year old strike the forums with joy. It didn’t have to be over an elite maiden win either, it could just be a work that topped the charts, or a big post race bump in works– like proud parents, we all find a reason to love our most cherished two-year-olds.

The Bashford Manor is the proverbial green flag for two year olds. Giving them the all-clear to begin their campaign for the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. The field will undoubtedly be made up of young ones full of pedigree, as well as under-the-radar hopefuls, and even those with fringe EPR clinging to the alternate status.

We anticipate seeing quite a few talented two year olds but one we can be sure will be entered into the field with enough EPR to guarantee a slot is KY Juvenile stakes winner, Paco. His works haven’t been flashy at the six furlong distance, but the horse showed something in the Juvenile. Already notching a win under the twin spires, Paco will have the EPR to nab the jockey of choice, and it seems the only factor to consider is post position.

“…his works have been ok, not great but he just seems to know how to win so far. Maybe he has the heart factor that gets thrown around about these horses– Im hoping it continues. He has put on some weight and Im hoping he moves forward, I’m sure its going to be a tough field and as…

– D J C Racing Stables

And the latter of those conditions may mean the most. Outside post in these sprint conditions can be a killer, especially with so many trainers continually attempting to be just off the pace, also known as the word of the year, “Stalk.” D J C Racing Stables acknowledges the value of a quality post position for these younger horses and according to him he won’t risk going off from a poor slot.

“…if I dont draw well I might scratch and look the Sanford in July. Good luck to all those who are entered.

– D J C Racing Stables.

With twelve hopefuls set to load the gates on June 26th beneath the beautiful green spires of Churchill Downs, I can only guarantee you one thing– The winner of this race will be the talk of the town…. until the Sanford arrive! Let’s meet the field:

Bashford Manor – GIII

CD – For Two Year Olds ($125 Purse)

Six Furlongs on the Dirt

June 26th, 2021

Gate 1 – Shook (Harrell Racing): This gelding sired by Red Rioja ran a good effort in the KY Juvenile, finishing fourth. He saves ground against the rail and with a 1:11.1 H work at this distance in early June, he should be a threat coming toward the wire: Odds: 5/1

Gate 2 – Orange Chicken (Arindel): An Aggravation colt who won’t catch anyone off guard. He’s been on everyone’s watchlist for quite some time and after posting a 1:10.4 H work, you have to like him as the favorite at CD. If he works into position, he’ll be a tough one to run down. Odds: 5/2

Gate 3 – Justinian (Nakamura Racing): Nak’s colt hasn’t worked 6F since June 1st and hasn’t run since winning at 4.5F on April 3rd, a day he posted an 86 speed fig while breaking maiden. His 1:11.3 H is a touch behind the field, but Nak is testing his class after a 60+ day layoff. Odds: 20/1

Gate 4 – Sycamore Sling (Barcelona Farms): This gelding broke out early April and still holds the 3rd fastest 4F race time for 2s. On that day he posted an 88 speed fig and has since been training for Barcelona. Today marks the first day back to the races for Sycamore, but most of the trains are short turf works, leaving a bit of mystery to how this one will perform. Odds: 15/1

Gate 5 – Paco (D J C Racing Stables): Our KY Juvenile winner makes a return in hopes to keep the win streak alive and score a graded victory. The question will be how much Dom’s colt has improved from that May 22nd 1:11.3 H work, but no one can question this one’s heart. Coming in two for two, he got the post his trainer wanted, and will look for fight off Orange Chicken and a slew of other talent at the wire. Odds: 9/2

Gate 6 – Come With Assets (Harrell Racing): Harrell’s second entry showcases a fast 4.5F maiden win at CD with a 90 speed fig. The only dig on this one would be the 1:11.3 H work, that while is superb, seems to be below par in this field. It’ll be interesting to see how the trainer instructs this horse with his more prized entry coming inside him at the 2 gate. This horse could surprise but Harrell will be watching the Chicken closer. Odds: 20/1

Gate 7 – Perfect Secrets (La Canada Racehorses): Another colt that broke maiden early on in April and has been patiently training, likely for this moment. While the 1:11.3 won’t pop of the page compared to others, this one did win first out at AQU with a 90 speed fig. And as with most, LCR comes here with quality EPR, getting a top jock, and will test his young colt’s class. Odds: 15/1

Gate 8 – Run It Back (Fractious): Purchased for $200 just four days after a 3 length maiden win at GG, this colt out of hot young sire Rumble will likely need to be improved off his 58.4 CD work to pose a threat. Still, Fractious has an eye for talent and places his horse here in hopes he has the desire to pass his foes. Odds: 25/1

Gate 9 – Hilarity (Mb Stables): a speedy colt out of Fire N Fury, Hilarity scored at AQU on his first out with a speed fig of 90. Since, trainer Mb Stables has showcased the development of his colt with a 1:11.1 H work on June 22nd at BEL. He’ll have to overcome an outside post but this colt has a lot to like about him form top to bottom and is a big threat to ruin Orange Chicken’s day. Odds: 7/2

Gate 10 – Union Mills (Sccj Stables): Sccj has rejected offer after offer on this colt so that he could enjoy these very moments. First out winner at SA In later March, this colt recently posted a 1:11.2 H work that indicates steady improvement. The real question will be how well Union Mills handles being this far out on the break. Odds: 8/1

Gate 11 – Two Time (Jive Inc.):

Gate 12 – Happy Go (Jive Inc.)

Jive’s Prediction

With such a collection of young talent, that tends to be unpredictable and often erratic, it is difficult to finger any one pick here.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES