With a view toward fairness and balance, I turned the attention I had focused on the KYD to the other major race on the calendar that consistently attracts many of our top players. The Kentucky Oaks (KYO), the fillies’ counterpart to the Kentucky Derby (KYD), follows a similar qualification pathway and carries its own long and distinguished history. While it may not command the same prestige as the Derby, its roster of winners includes several names that have become fixtures within the HRP community.

My initial question was straightforward: Do the performance traits identified in my KYD analysis hold true across the sexes? Before exploring that, however, one issue required attention. Unlike the colts—many of whom are gelded and therefore removed from the breeding pool—the KYO winners provide a complete and uninterrupted record of how elite three‑year‑old fillies perform once retired to the paddock.

If there is truly no meaningful difference between the sexes in their ability to pass on genetic quality, then a conclusion could be that gelding KYD winners has had little impact on the overall breeding landscape as the impact of these Oaks winning mares on the breeding scene has been minimal.

 A review of the stud performance of KYO winners reveals a striking pattern: only two foals have earned more than $1,000.000, and none have surpassed $1,500.000. For a group of fillies that represent the pinnacle of their generation, this is an extraordinary anomaly.

This trend reinforces a long‑standing observation within HRP: genetic inheritance appears to outweigh racetrack performance, with recessive traits in particular exerting a disproportionate influence. Despite their own elite ability, these fillies have not produced offspring capable of matching—or even approaching—their level of success. The sample size is now large enough to consider this a consistent and meaningful outcome rather than random variation.

Whether this reflects an intentional design choice within the simulation or an unintended deviation from real‑world breeding dynamics is beyond my expertise. Nonetheless, the disconnect between top‑tier performance and breeding influence is significant, and it raises a legitimate question about how the underlying system prioritizes genetics versus achievement.

So, onto the winners themselves. Credit Crime is the most recent of these and some of the best fillies in the game with Wasted Away the 2024 winner, Naples, Tenrikyo, Wicked Heat, Stella Artois and Funky Music all achieving superstar status. There are however a few, much like the KYD, that achieved next to nothing apart from their KYO win suggesting that need for early development over longevity.

So, let’s start looking at the stats, beginning with conformation:

Well, there are a few stand outs here but once again it seems that any build can win, just some build trends appear more than others…which I guess is what trends do!

So, let’s begin with the talent indicators, Lumbo and Humerus Angle. This is fairly unsurprising with 18 of the 23 winners showing higher than a Good Lumbo and 17 of the 23 winners having a high or High Mid Humerus Angle, substantive but not conclusive, however there seems a definite advantage in those stats slanting towards those with conformational genetic ability.

Once again when we look at stamina indicators there is more of a slant towards stamina than we saw in the KYD, but it seems speed is still an important factor, just maybe not as important as with the KYD. All but two of the winners displayed a lower than mid Stifle with a slight lean towards mid which certainly gives an indication of stamina however when you mix that with the rear triangle, we find that it is predominantly balanced. Like the KYD a mix of speed and stamina is required rather than one or the other.

Longevity like that of the KYD winners really had little going on but there was a lean towards better than a light Average Forehand which suggests these fillies rely less on being ‘early types’.

In general, the KYO winners were “prettier” than their male counterparts and more within the parameters described for nine-furlong grade one winning three-year-olds.

OK so now let’s look at performance indicators:

Generally, the winners of the KYD were pretty successful prior to the race with at least some success at two and 15 of the 23 winners successful in their race prior to the KYO. It is somewhat surprising given their generally sounder conformation that more didn’t have better success as race mares later in life and whilst some of this could be put down to rushing them to the paddocks for breeding, in general their form does tail off the older they get.

I wonder whether the programmed maturity that we see at the DMR Trials where the fillies tend to be more successful than the boys lends itself to a shorter racing lifespan, especially when you consider there is nothing to suggest that in their conformation. Though, to look at these fillies that are no less robust than their male counterparts it does seem that tough races through two and three can see them suffer a little as they get to four and those that have had a lighter career and easier racing start to dominate them. This seems to be similar to the boys but does seem a little magnified in the female racers.

So, there we have it, I think there are some good comparisons to be made here with the boys, the trends certainly lean to genetic ability in their conformation and a good balance between speed and stamina. The trouble is this may have been noticed by our educated players and that could be why we are seeing a move towards closer racing and less consistent form; we are in fact running these conformation twins over every trip and surface because so many have seen the trends and are racing only those that fit into a small conformation window.

This of course is all me speculating over a few specks of data, we all have our opinions and the reason I have published all this information is for everyone to be able to make their own mind up, it may of course all just be a matter of black or red!

Categories: EDITORIAL, FEATURED STORIES, Racing Information