Another Chance for Elders to Beat Threes or Is There a Rotten Apple Among Them?

The WV Governors Stakes – Grade III
MNR Race #17 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $200.000 For Three Year Olds And Upward.

1 Rotten Apple Nakamura Stables Quinones L

The question we need to ask in these types of races is not which is the best horse but whether the three year olds are close enough to the older horses to take advantage of the weight allowance. As we all know they normally are, in fact you dont even have to have a good three year old usually so the fact that the two three year olds in this race are pretty good should make this a forgone conclusion. This one had improved in overnights after limited success this year and took that improvement to run third in the LA Derby last time. He went on the speed that day and weakened into third but if he can get handy from this draw and get away with soft splits then he will be better favored by the trip today and could be a danger.

2 Born A Diplomat D J C Racing Stables Beschizza A

Another with mixed form displaying how similar top end racing is whether its allowances or stakes races. He was a nice sixth in the Bay Shore and went on to a sprint win in an optional claimer at PRX before being tried over this trip in the Easy Goer where he made the running and weakened late ending up sixth but only beaten a length. He went on to the Queens Plate in his last start and ran respectively from a wide draw to run on late into sixth which is probably his best race to date. On paper he is better than the other three but his work times arent as sharp so you must go with what you repsect more to seperate these two.

3 Dastardly Havoc Maxmillion Farm Frey K


So here is the other race within the race, the race of the older horses and whether they can perform under the impost of weight for age. This one is an established stakes class router winning the OP Handicap and finishing a close and fine third in the Suburban Handicap last time. His speed figures and works are very strong and he has the added bonus that he will stay every yard of this trip strongly. The trainer is a canny player and will have this one primed although with only three wins from twenty one starts you have to question his finish just a little.

4 Sonador Night Rider Stables Castellano J


This five year old came out of a ten buck claimer to win the GP Mile and has done well enough in his next three starts to prove that was less than a fluke than it looked on paper. He had a confidence boosting win in overnight company last time and will be very competitive in this small field.

6 Harleys Hope TwinTowersRacing Saez G

Rounding off the field is this busy gelding who has done pretty well over a range of trips but has yet to win beyond a mile. He was a close fourth in the Carter Handicap and then ran a surprisingly good race in the CT Classic when staying on into fifth. I say surprising because his best form has been in sprints but trip means little to a good horse and that seems to be the case here. Two further runs in sprint company have seen him run well without winning so he is in good form despite having his eighth start of the year already. I guess the question with him is whether the race engine will spit him to the lead where he will weaken or the trainer is using a restraining tactic and he comes home late. Either way he has a chance if things go his way.

SUMMARY

As usual the two best horses in the race are in the older age group but with the weight break it really brings the three’s into it despite inferior form. If this was a real life race i would be looking for Dastardly Havoc to touch off Sonador but at HRP you have to take the three’s seriously and Rotten Apple may just get among them.



Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES