3/28/26
2 OP The AR Derby (GI) [KYD]
$1,500.000 3yo 1 1/8m Dirt 122lbs 
Over the hill to the paper-clip and a huge race on the TC Trail, as we take a gander at the field of eleven set to go a mile and an eighth on the OP oval in The AR Derby (GI). A nice, fat purse and those all important points… you know they will fighting for this one. We have two early scratches as Mb Stable’s Self Love and Mo Mentum Farm’s Mayor Of Win City have both been declared, moving Gary to the eleven hole.
I’m headed straight to the rail and will take Hurts as the top pick today. I know, this can be an awful spot to break from in these large fields, but he showed a bit more early lick in that FofY (GII) win… more of that please. He’s also a horse that looks like he can run all day, so don’t forget him that first weekend in May, either.
I’ll take People Batty in the second spot… this one fresh off of a runner-up effort in the Risen Star (GII) at FG, that one at today’s distance. He worked a bullet at five-eighth’s over the track but could be in a growth spurt, which may back me off a bit. Still, he looks ready to run a big race.
For me to bet a tri, I’d use 5-6 in a 1/8-1/8-xxxxx format, so let’s just go with this pair and let the rest work it’s way out.
Here’s The Field –
The rail isn’t my favorite spot, but at this track, it can be very beneficial. He showed enough tactical speed in that FofY (GII) win to let me know that he can run up towards the front, and I think they may been similar tactics here today. He’s my top pick, so… yeah, I believe what I say. Another like last out should get the job done.
Bounced back from that tiring effort in the Davis to be second vs. NY-bred stakes horses, but that was at a flat mile and they try to make him go longer, yet again. The conformation is iffy, but the barn is smarter than the average bear, so I’m not going to question them. I’m also not picking him.
Seems to close ground late but never has the extra umph needed to get the job done. Fourth in the Smarty Jones, and he has three starts over this track. Still, I have to like some others more.
All three starts vs. stakes company have been less than desirable. Won his first two starts, and he was fourth in the Davis, but again, it’s getting down to who is showing their top form right now and I think this one is going to need his best to get any part of it.
This barn usually finds a way to get one (or more) on the TC Trail, but this one really struggled last out. He was fourth in the Lewis (GIII) after winning a MSW and the Allison Derby… but only beat two in a very dull effort at SA in the San Felipe (GII). Can he turn it around?
Looked to be a rags-to-riches story after being claimed for $5.000, then winning a small stakes before a near miss runner-up effort in the Lecomnte (GIII). But, that last out eighth in the TAM Derby (GIII) certainly leaves a bad taste in the mouth. He needs to find his old stride.
You have to love that win in the Southwest (GIII) over this track, and closed well to be fourth in the Rebel (GII), again, here at OP. I certainly can see this one being in the hunt, you always have to respect the Big Barn, and I certainly would not leave him off of the exotic tickets.
My second pick and he’s been sharp… The vet stopped by to get him set on racing vs going to the shed, and it’s been good results, since. Won an Alw race at FL, then closed out his 2yo season with a win in the LA Futurity (GII). Kicked off his ’26 campaign with a solid runner-up effort in the Risen Star (GII) at FG. Watch him.
ok, so here’s your wild-card horse, if you were looking for one. Solid trainer is back in the barn and plunks down a pretty penny to secure this gelding. Goes straight for the stars off of a series of solid works. Can Timepiece be recreated? Maybe not, he was special… still, I’d keep an eye on this one.
Another with a series of solid races only to throw a dud last out. Runner up in the Smarty Jones, third in the Southwest (GIII) then eighth in the Rebel (GII) although he did close ground late in that one. Catches a bad post but… don’t leave him off of the tri tickets… and he could be a contender.
Early scratch
Lightly raced with only four starts and a maiden win to show from that. He was fourth in the Tin Cup and the Wait For It Stakes, now makes his 3yo debut against monsters. Veteran trainer that knows what it takes and wouldn’t be here just to see his name in the program.
Early scratch
COZMAN 1 / 8 Willie’s Green Card 9 / 1 / 8
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, TC 2026, THE TRIPLE CROWN
