The GP Oaks – Grade II [KYO]
GP Race #13 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $250.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.
Maybe it is a reflection of the participation in the game or maybe it is just the fact that there is no bonus for the fillies but whichever way you look at it this is a poor turn out for one of the top KYO qualifiers. With just eight going to post and a quarter of that field being maidens it really does give an opportunity for a path through to one of the premier fillies races of the year. My introduction however should do nothing to take away the potential and quality of this field, it won’t be easy to win and maybe, just maybe we could see another top filly stake her claim to be the next superstar.
Here is how they line up:
1 Captain Chaimura Asgar Geroux F 122
A maiden that has raced three times and never beyond seven furlongs is tough to line up in a grade two event, but Asgar is a canny trainer who knows better than most that her past performance needn’t hinder her chances in this race. If we judged her only on her work times, she would have a great chance from the ace draw and whilst she has tasted defeat in all her three races the second of those saw her beaten less than a length in a stakes race. In her two races this year she has closed off well which may be a hint that this trip will see improvement and as we all know that improvement at HRP can manifest as being superhuman, or in her case super equine. So, she is hard to pick on form, but she could just be the sort that lights up the tote board.
2 Janney Royalty Stables Gaffalione T 122
Broke her maiden in her last of three starts, like the one inside her she doesn’t scream grade two winner but there are a good few positives to suggest that is possible. An on-speed type provides the first tick in a box, the draw is her second, the third would be she has shown plenty of heart over a mile and the fourth is her trainer who is one of the most popular and has quickly become a major player in the game. Again, like the horse inside her it is hard to see her winning on form but that is probably the only cross among many ticks, and it wouldn’t surprise to see her in the fight at the end.
3 Santorini Riggins Racing Corbett G W 122
Corbett makes the long trip up from TUP to take the saddle on this grade one winning filly. She is very much a tale of two seasons, as a two-year-old she won the grade one Frizette and was only beaten a neck in the BC Juvenile Fillies, as a three-year-old her best finish in two starts would be eighth. So, what happened to a filly that won 4 from 6 at two and yet has barely got a mention from the commentator in two starts at three? Well, it all comes down to running style, or as it is here at HRP early pace. In both her starts this year she has made a ton of ground late but never got near the leaders, at two, for some reason that timing was less of an issue. So, the question will be more to do with traffic and race engine luck than ability because if it was down to prior achievement this one would be the obvious choice.
4 Undisputed Edge Mb Stables Rodriguez A R 122
One race, seventh of nine in a Hou maiden, you wouldn’t be wrong if you asked how on earth this winner of zero dollars doing in a grade two. Well, this is HRP and here at HRP there have been many with similar qualifications that have won at this level and above so let’s take a closer look. Firstly, ignoring the record let’s look at the works, on the 1st of March a week before her debut she worked 1.11 flat for 6 furlongs as fast as the last 6-furlong work of the grade one winning Santorini. That pre-race work says freak which leads us to who owns her, Mb Stables. After a slow start, the trainer is starting to dominate as we have come to expect and if this filly lives up to her pre-race works, she could be another super star in the making. Of course, a fast work and a great trainer is not enough in itself, let’s not forget she has only run once and not that well, so she still has something to prove. This however could easily be the race she does that.
5 Sue Ellen Serenity Stables Bocachica Ar 122
It is great to see Serenity Stables back in the game. One of the originals they have never been a full-time player but when they have participated have proved to be one of the best. Two TC races, two BC races, seventy-six graded stakes in what is a very light career they certainly know how to make a splash when they take a dip into HRP, and you have to take a very serious look at any horse this player adds to their barn. This filly that won her last two at lowly TUP was bought at auction for just $12.000 but the fact she is here and in the hands of this stable suggests she is ready to make the huge jump.
6 Dreambits Mb Stables Lopez P 122
You couldn’t get more different than the two entries form the champion trainer, one a maiden, one a stakes winner with KYO points already in the bag. It should be easy to choose which one is the best but being HRP, it is not so cut and dried. The winner of the Forward Gal on seasonal debut she backed that up with a close second in the Honeybee and certainly looks right up there on form as the best chance in the race. Consistency and an on-speed running style add ticks to the boxes, and she could well start as most people’s favorite to win.
7 Diedra Alydar Stables Espinoza V 122
The stable always has fillies to be contenders in the early KYO races and this 3 time winner comes here with every chance of continuing that trend. The form lines aren’t as strong as the big three in this race though and looking at her races is likely to go back from this wide draw and both of those things make her more of an outsider than an obvious chance. She is honest enough though and if the race engine decides on some crazy fractions she could just run into it late.
8 Brandy Creme The Sidley Stud Elliott S 122
This stable seems a master of bringing a horse from fair track level to stakes level with success and this is another such example. After five starts and one win at the lower levels of HRP racing she was given the huge task of stepping up to the Busher last time and ran a huge race for a late flying third. That effort bought her another chance, but she once again gets a wide draw and will have to run even better to win this. There is no reason why she can’t win but there are plenty of reasons she won’t. Coming from last is a tough ask at HRP these days and needs all sorts of race engine luck for it to come off, her form is only good enough because of one start and her works are no better than anything else’s. All that means she can win but it is probably more down to chance than others.
SUMMARY
A disappointing size of field but nonetheless a fascinating race. The presence of Undisputed Edge is probably the most fascinating and if she runs away with this, she may be on a path to greatness. Also fascinating is Santorini who was brilliant at two but has yet to fire this year, could today be the day. Then we have Sue Ellen from Serenity Stables and the best current form of anything here with Dreambits. I can’t pick one of those four to win with any confidence, but I guess if I had to it would be for Santorini to return to form.
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES