4/25/2020

7 SA     Crystal Water Stakes

    $100.000    3yo&Up  Foaled in CA        1m Turf       3yo  121lbs      Older 124 lbs        +penalties

Cal bred males will be headed to the SA turf course as we look at the wide open field for the 2020 Crystal Water Stakes, to be run at a flat mile.  I’m not going to make a bunch of hoopla over nothing today as I just can’t get past I’m Special and Smoking Makes You Il as my exacta box.  The prior has four wins in his last six stats and this looks like a good spot to keep that streak going.  If he isn’t up for the win, let’s look at the other to take it down.  Two wins since changing barns and closed will here last out facing similar  horses.  Even a repeat of that race may be enough to get his picture taken.

Here’s The Field –

Beat Alw types at TAM to kick-off the ’20 then was next to last n the Shaker (GII) at KEE in his most recent.  I think his best stakes race may have come on a wet course and the course should be firm here so I think he will need his very best to get any part of this one.

Was second over this track two back in the Pasadena and a repeat of that could put this one in the money.  Didn’t miss a check as a 2yo and has two fifth place finishes this year, and now takes on older horses for the first time.  The weight break could be helpful, but I’ll look at a few others.

Claimed four back for $32.000 and did get back to the winning ways last out taking Alw horses at HOU on a wet course.  His stakes efforts leave a bit to be desired, but he was fourth on a soft course at HOU going the marathon distance.  He’s another that could be in the running for a minor share but I don’t think he can be considered for the top spot.

Changed hands four back via the private sale and shows two wins from the four starts.  The bad news is, his two other races are the stakes races he’s been in.  He did close well to be fourth beaten a length over this track last out in the Tiznow, and that could be a sign that he’s ready to firing a big race.  I’d give him a big look today.

Claimed prior to his last out tiring effort where he was seventh of eight in the Sensational Star Stakes, here in SoCal.  He loves the grass and has been tough in other stakes company, so maybe he turns it around today, but he won’t have my money.

Changed hands two back for via private purchase for the tidy sum of $100.000 but has not exactly paid his way yet.  Was fifth last out in the Transylvania (GIII) at KEE where he had the lead turning for home only to back up down the lane.  I’m a broken record, as he will need his best to be part of this one.

He’s been an all or nothing sort of late, three wins last year and won last out on the HOU turf, but was seventh on the KD couse in Sep, but the time off did him some good as he won first out.  He is top weight today, and depending on how you feel about the subject, well, either it’s bad or it’s bad.

Nice win here last out on the down-hill course, winning by a half length against state-bred Alw company.  Had a single win last season, breaking maiden in the same manner… down the hill, state bred.  Can he get his fist stakes victory in similar fashion?

Single win last year and that came back in Mar at RIL, and he was third last out at LRL, beaten four lengths.  I think this is a bit of a reach for his past talents, but that probably spells victory with my choices of late.

Two solid starts this season coupled with a less than stellar start, but that was here in SoCal on the main track.  Turf seems to be more his game, but the post doesn’t help him and it is a step up from what he’s been facing.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded