The PRK (Grade 1)- $1,500.000 Purse
PIM- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and Three Sixteenths on the Dirt
May 20, 2023
Two weeks ago, Quiet Return etched his name into immortality by earning the victory in the 20th running of the KYD. It’s a win that will allow his trainer, Allinthegate, to say that they accomplished one of the biggest aspirations that anyone who has ever trained a virtual horse would love to have. Now, comes the second part. Can Quiet Return win the Triple Crown? The game does offer a $50,000,000 bonus to the winning trainer if they are able to do so, and wouldn’t it be great if it were to happen in the twentieth anniversary season? It’s a feat that is very difficult to achieve in the real world, and within our game it may be even more difficult. With so many great horses, the starting gate for each of the TC races is filled with capable horses, not just a few top contenders and others needing everything to go right in order to have a chance. Only twice has the same horse even won the first two legs of the TC, with the first example being the very first horse ever to win the KYD. In 2004, Fuji Ninja accomplished the double, but his form declined pretty quickly. He would finish eighth in the BEL and would never even hit the board again. We don’t have to go back far for the second one, of course, as Howl Of The Hound did so only two years ago. He would fare much better in the BEL, by running second. Interestingly, even he would never win again after the PRK.
One thing that gets talked about a lot as a factor for why our KYD winners have rarely backed that win up with a victory in the PRK is the fact of reality, only being two weeks between races. Now, this will affect every horse differently, and that is true in the real world as well. Here is a breakdown of the 19 previous PRK winners and whether or not they ran in the KYD:
Ran in KYD: Fuji Ninja (2004), Dark Crown (2006), North Of The Border (2008), Like Now (2009), Soldier of Liberty (2011), Pan A Ram (2012), Twisted Estate (2014), Ned Isakoff (2016), Ginger Haggis (2017), Hollywood Latte (2019), Chai Morning (2020), Howl Of The Hound (2021), All Take (2022)
Did not run in KYD: Real Bull (2005), Round Trip Ticket (2007), Mrs Bombastic (2010), Mine Captain (2013), A One (2015), Indistinguishable (2018)
Adding all that up, we can see that 13 of the previous 19 runners did actually run in the PRK, and interestingly, we are on a run right now of four straight such winners that also ran in the KYD, as well as six of the last seven. Suffice to say, we may overstate the impact of horses coming into the PRK rested against horses that did just run two weeks ago. In the 2023 PRK, eight of the fourteen horses (this is counted after the three early scratches) ran in the KYD. Based on history, one of those eight horses may be the best bet.
When Quiet Return won the KYD, he did so from the 17-hole. It is said that outside posts are difficult to win from, but in reality, it has not been a big deterrent in the 20 editions of the KYD we have run. In the PRK, Quiet Return will need to do so from the rail. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? We will soon find out, but here is a look at the winning post positions in previous runnings of the PRK:
1- Round Trip Ticket (2007), Twisted Estate (2014), Ned Isakoff (2016), Hollywood Latte (2019), Chai Morning (2020)
2- Ginger Haggis (2017), Howl Of The Hound (2021)
3- none
4- North Of The Border (2008)
5- Real Bull (2005), Mrs Bombastic (2010)
6- none
7- none
8- Soldier Of Liberty (2011)
9- none
10- Fuji NInja (2004), All Take (2022)
11- Indistinguishable (2018)
12- Dark Crown (2006)
13- Pan A Ram (2012)
14- Like Now (2009), Mine Captain (2013)
18- A One (2015)
It looks like Quiet Return is starting in the best post possible with five wins from the rail in the race’s history. Horses on the outside should not be ruled out, either, since eight races have been won from double digit posts. In fact, it is those middle posts that have been the least fortunate with only four winners coming between posts 3 and 9, and the last such winner from one of those start gates coming in 2011.
Previous PRK wins, by trainer, of those with an entry in the 2023 PRK: Mb Stables (3), Nakamura Stables (1), Alydar Stables (1), Allinthegate (0), Apache Warrior (0), Arindel (0), Angelos Stable (0), Mo Mentum Farm (0), Arkansas Elite (0), D J C Racing Stables (0), The Freakshow (0).
Alot of trainers looking for their first PRK win, but Mb, Nakamura, and Alydar will be happy for those trainers to stay looking for it. Congratulations to everyone for getting a horse into this race, for some it is an expectation, but for others it a much bigger deal. For all of you, it’s an accomplishment to be proud of. We reached out to trainers to comment about their horses, but most of them opted to keep things close to the vest. However, some did respond, and where they have, their remarks about their horse have been included. Here’s our field!
#1- Quiet Return (Allinthegate, ridden by T Gaffalione)- Proud winner of the 20th running of the KYD within our virtual world. We’ve added all the numbers above to show that being on the rail has been a good thing in the PRK, and that it doesn’t really matter if a horse had just raced two weeks prior. Quiet Return was not seen as one of the horses to beat in the KYD, but he was also not seen as hopeless, going off at nearly 11/1 odds. He was a BC champion, but not the usual race for the TC, as it was the Juvenile Turf. He did not win any of the preps of 2023, but earned a quiet return on all of them, hitting the board in each. At CD, it was his time to shine and with regular rider T Gaffalione aboard, he got the job done. Now, we all sit back and wonder as to whether or not this will be the year of a TC winner. Or could we at least head into the BEL with the possibility of it happening on the line?
Allinthegate was one of the trainers who replied for comment, stating, ” I don’t have a good feel for how he might handle the short turnaround. Unlike the derby where I had a good feeling on race day, based on his works and the preparation schedule, there is no time to figure out how he might handle the short rest. Hopefully his consistency will prevail, and he will run well. Everyone who ran in the derby is in the same boat and it will be interesting to see who shows up.” On the day of his KYD win, Allinthegate provided interesting insight in the forum about the decision to breed him when it happened. If you haven’t read the thread, it is highly recommended.
#2- Spirit Believer (Nakamura Stables, ridden by F T Alvarado)- We now move to the spoilers, as thirteen horses look to etch their own name into the history books. Spirit Believer did not run in the KYD, as despite winning the Holy Bull in February, he would only finish 28th on the point board. This surprisingly left Nakamura Stables shut out of the big race entirely, but he can still atone for that here. The problem is that Spirit Believer really has not done much else other than winning the Holy Bull. After winning the Iroquois in September, he struggled, but perhaps the Holy Bull would set him right. He did run fourth in the Fountain Of Youth after that but could not sustain any momentum from that afterwards. Last seen running seventh in the FL Derby.
#3- Apache Rise Again (Apache Warrior, ridden by L Dettori)- If the KYD was just a little longer, then we may be talking about Apache Rise Again winning the race. His late bid in the stretch was good enough only for second place, but it was a valiant effort, for sure. The two-week short rest period between the KYD and the PRK should not be a deterrent in and of itself, but Apache Rise Again goes deeper than that. He ran in the Grade 3 Lexington as well, so that means he had just two weeks between that and the KYD. Usually, a horse will handle one period like that without much issue, but when you start piecing them together like that in succession, I think it is more of an issue. Even the Lexington was on three weeks rest from the LA Derby. Hey, if you’re Apache Warrior, you have to do it but hopefully the horse is not worn out.
#4- Keep Me Apprised (Alydar Stables, ridden by V Espinoza)- While the top two positions in the KYD went to the starters in posts 17 and 18, Keep Me Apprised did not experience that same level of success when starting from the post #20. He was way back early, and was at his best late in the race, but all that did was see him pass four horses to get up for 15th at the end. Don’t knock the style, though, because that is what got him to the KYD in the first place. Leading into the race, he was also at the back at the end and closed hard to get up and win the race by the neck. That was his second career win and came right after breaking his maiden. If he’s coming back into the PRK, I have to think that Alydar Stables is confident that he can fix what happened in the KYD. At the least, he starts from a better post.
#5- Gorogue Laga (Arindel, ridden by L Saez)- Seen as one of the top three-year-olds leading up to the KYD, and that would show at the betting window when he was made the post time favorite. There was plenty to back that up, and that began as a two-year-old when he won the DMR Futurity and then placed second in the BC Juvenile. No let down would follow as we moved into 2023, as Gorogue Laga won both the LA Futurity and the Southwest. But in the KYD, he would be left without cashing a check, the first time after his debut race that he was not in the top two. It was not a bad performance, though, as it was a respectable fifth, and when it’s the KYD, there’s nothing wrong with that. He’s never run on this type of short rest before, so that could either be an excuse or a reason to like him even more here. He hasn’t stopped being a great horse.
#6- State Of Fury (Alydar Stables, ridden by D Van Dyke)- It may be hard to convince the bettors that they should throw their money on State Of Fury, but you never can tell in a race like this. In his third career start, he went to SA and won the Grade 1 Pharoah, but after that you can make the case that he has only one good result since. That came in the RP Springboard Mile, where he ran second. Other than that, in five starts, he has been tenth three times and seventh once. Most recently, he was in the SA Derby, and was a complete non-factor. His works show that he is capable of running with this crowd, but now he has to show it.
#7- Wahpekute Sioux (Mb Stables, ridden by P Lopez)- When you want to start looking at horses that did not run in the KYD that could be good threats as rested horses in the PRK, looking at what Mb brings to the table is a good start because they may have been horses that would have otherwise been in the KYD if not for the three-horse restriction. Wahpekute Sioux is a great example of that type of horse, because he did everything that he possibly could have done to have raced at CD. He won his last two races, included the AR Derby in April, and the San Felipe the start before that. No one had more than the 154 points that he earned, but he was not chosen by Mb Stables to run in the KYD. He has a nice six-furlong work at BEL coming into this as well and is the best bet if you don’t want to go for a horse that ran two weeks ago.
#8- Fear Me Not (Mb Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- This another horse that Mb Stables could have entered into the KYD, as he did place 14th on the KYD leaderboard, but the trainer chose other alternatives. That was probably for the best, as his run in the FL Derby did not do much to show that he should get the nod when one has choices. While he could only a muster a tenth place run in that race, he did win a prep two back, capturing the Fountain Of Youth. Works well and is a horse that we can see doing bigger things later this year, but he isn’t likely to be one of the top picks here.
#9- Times Ticking (Angelos Stable, ridden by E Jaramillo)- Picked up in February in a maiden claimer for $50.000, and has been paying off very nicely for Angelos Stable. It didn’t take long for his new trainer to realize he might have something special, as just two weeks after the claim, he entered the horse in the Grade 3 Gotham, and Times Ticking showed he could run at this level by finishing fourth. In the start that followed, he would become a graded stakes winner, grabbing the SUN Derby and earning his spot into the KYD. At 22/1, he had a solid effort. It didn’t earn him a check, but he was coming on at the end of the race to finish sixth and will be looking to do a little better than that here. He’s shown he can run well on short rest, so that will not be an issue for this one.
#10- Cross Examination (Mo Mentum Farm, ridden by M Franco)- After finishing fourth in the LA Derby, Cross Examination struggled in the KYD, and could do no better than a 13th place result. He had been having a good year up to that point, placing fourth in the Holy Bull before running the Risen Star, so there is no reason to think that he would be unable to bounce back here in the PRK. And as Mo Mentum is well aware, that one big win, the Risen Star, came on just two weeks rest. So, maybe Cross Examination has the field right where he wants them. Mo Mentum Farm is optimistic, pointing out that, “He was blocked most of the stretch in the KYD and, like his BC winning sire, that’s where he does all his running. His best race came on 14 days rest in the Risen Star, and he’s otherwise well rested – so I’m hoping he’ll have a little better racing luck and will be able to handle the quick turnaround once again like a champ.”
#11- High In Hollywood- Scratched
#12- Jacks Courage (Mb Stables, ridden by Ru Silvera)- The only horse entered by Mb Stables into the PRK that did actually run two weeks ago in the KYD. But Jacks Courage didn’t simply just show up, he ended up with a third-place finish while being near the front most of the way. To get there, this gelding by Valiant had won four races in a row, starting with the $125.000 Pasco Stakes at TAM before capturing the Gotham and sharing the AR Derby victory with his stablemate, Wahpekute Sioux. The KYD would follow, and that’s a race he also started from post 11, which he will here as well due to the High In Hollywood scratch. His win in the Swale was on three weeks rest.
#13- Terabyte (Arkansas Elite, ridden by J C Ferrer)- In nine starts, Terabyte has only been to the winner’s circle one time, but he is otherwise a good example of a horse that consistently finishes in the money. He has done that on seven occasions, including both the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth, and in the latter, just a little more luck with the head bob at the wire would have seen him get the win. He would then run third in the AR Derby, and with that he able to compete in the KYD. However, that is not a race that he will look fondly upon, having beaten only one horse. Arkansas Elite is not bothered by that and hopes for improvement here. I am not a big fan of his works in comparison to his rivals here, but he has the shown the consistency to do well on the track in spite of that.
#14- Timeless (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- Finished his two-year-old season strong by winning both the Notebook and Great White Way, each of which are for NY-breds. In 2023, he has moved into unrestricted company and has been hit and miss up to this point. He’s run third in the each of the Lecomte and the Wood Memorial but did not cash a check in either the Risen Star or the TAM Derby. Not going to be one of the top choices in here, but I also would not rule him out from sneaking into the top four. Trainer D J C Racing Stables tells the SRF, “I snuck in with my horse Timeless but got cursed with the outside post, oh well, it isn’t much to scratch only losing a few dollars but I don’t get to run in too many TC races so I’ll give it a go from the outside, Horse is training fine and will be on meters for the run, now I just need some luck.”
#15- Ocala Secret- Scratched
#16- Hurly Road- Scratched
#17- Illegal Fiesta Party (The Freakshow, ridden by D E Centeno)- The scratch of High In Hollywood will not mean that The Freakshow is out of the PRK, because he gets this one in off of the also eligibles. While being unproven at this level, Illegal Fiesta Party has been successful in the races that he has been in, with four wins in seven starts, including his last two, which were starter allowances. This is a tough way to make a stake debut, but we shouldn’t disregard him for the reason, and the trainer has also been high on him, as he explains when responding to us, “High In Hollywood was not up to weight after 3 big races in 36 days. I was surprised to get an alternate into the draw. I was shocked to see two players scratch so soon, to allow me to still have a runner in Illegal Fiesta Party while giving High In Hollywood a chance to rest for the Belmont. I was thinking of steering Illegal Fiesta Party on this path back in December but decided to have the horse hold onto good form for a stakes/ BC run later in the season. If the track is off this horse is live.” There’s only a 24% chance of rain at PIM Saturday, but don’t forget what happened at BEL last week!
Prediction: I actually do like Quiet Return to run a great race here in the PRK and expect both Apache Rise Again and Cross Examination to run very well here. Of the ones that did not run in the KYD, Wahpekute Sioux is a massive contender. That said, I like Gorogue Laga in this spot to beat all of them. He may not have earned any money in the KYD, but his effort was not at all poor, and he will remind everyone of what made him the KYD post-time favorite. Picks: 5-7-1-10
— NS
Categories: TC 2021-2023
