Natalma Stakes – Grade I [BC]
WO Race #4 1m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $500.000 For Fillies Two Years Old.

1 Grand Concourse TwinTowersRacing Franco M 120

A quick turnaround for this filly that ran just 2 weeks ago in the KD Juvenile Turf where she finished an excellent third. The question will always be is 2 weeks enough rest between races and to be honest it is impossible to tell. She is 12 pounds lighter at the time of writing than she was in the KD juvenile and that could mean she is fitter or not recovered and with no visual reference and only that to go on we will just have to rely on what her programming says as to whether she can run her best. Very capable of winning on that last effort but a risky proposition for the punter with that short break.

2 Influence Seeker Mb Stables Velazquez J R 120

A consistent run in maidens came to an end at the fifth attempt when she made all to very easily win her maiden last time at SAR. The step up in trip clearly suited and she must be considered a big chance from a great gate and with Mb Stables weight behind her. That win at SAR was in a faster time that the KD Juvenile so the form should stack up against the more accomplished runners.

3 Princess Arabella Big Guns Stables Husbands P 120

A big ask for a maiden runner let alone one that was beaten ten lengths on debut, but this isn’t real life, and we have to look deeper to find her chances. She polished over a second off her mile work time after that run so it is clear that she got a larger than average “HRP bump” so she may just surprise a few today.

4 Mini Mulite Mb Stables Gaffalione T 120

The stable won’t be complaining about the draw monster today as they get two great gates for two good chances in this race. After a gutsy win on debut at CD it was clear she was well above average, but she disappointed a little in the Adirondack last time when fading away pretty tamely. The change in surface and longer trip may be the key for her as her works suggest, so I would expect a stronger showing with that experience under her belt.

5 Queen Comanche LionKing Stables Cabrera D 120

Won second up nicely enough but has been a bit lack luster since and we see a change in surface for her today to try and find that good early form. Her turf works are right there but let’s face there must be a 1000 two-year-olds working these sorts of times so it is hard to equate works to racecourse performance anymore. This may be her last chance to make her mark as a juvenile.

6 Nobled Love Chubby Racing Bejarano R 120

It is not easy to follow up a maiden win but this one managed to do that and is seeking a hat trick of wins today. She was very impressive last time albeit against a short field and it is clear that she will eat up this trip so must be a consideration. I guess the class gene is the big question and this race should tell us whether that resides in her programming.

7 Perpetual Motion Mo Mentum Farm Geroux F 120

With an eight-length maiden win over this trip and surface you cannot blame the trainer for having a go here even though that win came against four rivals at lowly BTP. It is a big step up, but she has her chance and good luck to her.

8 Smokin Rounds Red Fox Farms Lopez P 120

Another maiden having just the one run she was second last in that debut, but we all know that that part of HRP doesn’t really equate to much. She must’ve shown the trainer some turf sparkle in her private works so if you feel like a gamble on something that will be 50/1 plus, she could be a fun bet. Difficult to recommend as anything other than a complete shot in the dark.

9 Shot Of Summer Diablo Diablo Ortiz I Jr 120

It seems to have been a pattern in a few races I have covered that in these two-year-old races the stakes winners seem to get handicapped by a wide draw. This is the first of them, but I am not too sure she will be that bothered by the gate as a late closer and she was pretty impressive last time when sweeping by in the Catch A Glimpse Stakes. The grass seemed to improve her that day and I think this longer trip will too, so I think she is a good chance despite the handicap.

10 Patronize D J C Racing Stables Curtis B 120

Battled gamely to dead heat in the Johnson last time but faces a tough gate to get her preferred stalking position. She clearly has ability with a two from three record but we just won’t know how torrid a trip she will get until halfway through this race, so she is tough to tip as the winner with any confidence. The jockey and stable are going well so if things fall into place she could well get some of this purse.

SUMMARY

Always a difficult race, we are either seeing a BC winner here or a bunch of early types that will disappear as the season goes on. There does seem to be some promise in this race though but it is hard to single anything out as a clear pick, so I am going for Noble Love and Shot Of Summer to upset some of the big names.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES