Obrien Stakes (Grade 2) (BC)- $200.000 Purse
DMR- For Three Year Olds and Upward
Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
August 27, 2016
A full field heads to DMR on Saturday for the 14th running of the Obrien Stakes, a Grade 2 event with huge BC implications at stake. It is a race that the great Alpha Ultimo once dominated, as the legendary gelding won the race in 2006 and 2007, each by five lengths. There are no Alpha Ultimos amongst the twelve in this field, but there is plenty of overall talented and accomplished graded winners to make for a thrilling race. Mb Stables is the only other trainer to win the race more then once other then Alpha Ulitmo’s trainer, Jerry Garcia Racing. Mb has done it in two of the last three years, with Vandal in 2013, and Secret King in 2015. Both wins had J R Leparoux in the saddle, and that makes him the only jockey to win more then once. Leparoux will be in Saratoga on race day, but Mb Stables will have two chances to extend his streak. There are two three year olds in the field, and they have a four pound weight allowance on the rest of the field, so we will also see if the dominance of the three’s will continue here as well. Let’s meet the field.
#1- Sky Heights (Kopites, ridden by S Elliot)- Recently the subject of a private sale, as the always active in private sales Australia Wide shipped him off to Kopites on the 18th for $125.000. The new trainer clearly likes what he sees and immediately puts him into this race. There is much to like, as he has won five of eight, but his only graded race was the Grade 3 Day Mile, and he closed to be fourth on KYD day at CD. These horses that know how to win always needed to be watched, and Sky Heights is no exception.
#2- Agua Dulce (Sanny Village, ridden by E Maldanado)- The trainer showed a high degree of patience with this one, and it is paying off. He was claimed cheaply in May of 2015, for just $10.500, and after the claim, he seemed to be in great form, scoring a two wins in two starts, including a starter allowance at SAR. Then, he simply did not race again for ten months. Whatever Sanny did during that period has paid off, because when he returned to the track, it was for the Grade 2 True North at BEL, and he picked up the win! This is a six year old, but he has never been better. Amazing job by Sanny here regardless of how this race plays out.
#3- Shelby Mustang (John Henry, ridden by Mario Gutierrez)- Joined the John Henry army from Blushing Meadows after a $600.000 private sales purchase. Under his former trainer, he won seven of 15 starts, two of which were Grade 2’s: The Palos Verdes Stakes this February, and the Kona Stakes in May. John Henry has been patient with this one, but did not get the finish he was looking for in a Grade 1 Crosby that simply finished in a stunning time. He’s not going to have to be quite that fast today, though arguably any horse named this should indeed be an unbeatable sprinter. He should have a good shot.
#4- Giada (Mb Stables, ridden by San Gonzalez)- After 17 starts of no real standout races, other then a small stake at FL, Giada was sold from D J C Racing Stables to Mb Stables for $50.000 last month. The new trainer clearly saw something, and did not waste any time entering him in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt Handicap nine days after the sale. Whatever the trainer saw worked out, as he would finish and beat his prior high SRF by six. Most of the field was carrying the same weight in that handicap, so that was not a factor. He’ll have to be able to back that up here.
#5- Salt Lake City (Boomtown, ridden by B Blanc)- The Take A Million colt has had a successful four year old season that has allowed him to push his career winnings up over $1,000.000. The big win of the year came early, in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap in February. This race is a bit of a changeup for him, although seven furlongs seems to have been an occasional minimum distance in the past. Recently, Salt Lake City has wanted to come from off the pace, but if you look further back, you see that he used to like to go out front. So, we wonder if the trainer is going back to that, tactically, with this shorter distance.
#6- Accidental Notice (Joseph Racing, ridden by F H Perez)- After a strong three year old season with an 8-4-3-1 record, that included one ungraded stake victory, Accidental Notice has continued his ability this year to always be in the mix. He’s won twice in 2016, both coming in open allowances. The trainer has tried to advance him to this level, so far, the has not really gotten the results that he would want. A most recent example was back in late May in the Grade 3 All American, where he was fourth in a 5 horse field, and not a threat to the winner. He has a good chance here again to prove he can more then a great allowance horse.
#7- Roxys Triple Crown (Aer Stables, ridden by F Prat)- This four year old has won a third of his career starts, five of fifteen, and he seems to be the best form of his career this season. Back in May, he scored the biggest win of his career, coming in the Grade 2 Alysheba against some very good opposition, such as Dogs Infowarrior and a couple of talented Eagles. After the win, the trainer began to cut back on his distance, and he was most recently seen here at the Crosby last month, and was sixth of 10, though still ran well in that impressive race. This won’t be at the level of the Crosby, and that makes Roxys Triple Crown a strong contender.
#8- Phelps (Mb Stables, ridden by D Van Dyke)- Since the race is not held in a swimming pool, we can not consider Phelps a guarantee. The equine version has had a good career in his own right, with 12 golds, 4 silvers, and 2 bronzes in 24 career races. His most recent win came in the Grade 3 Hanshin Cup, defeating a horse named Arrest, but none named Lochte, in the process. He cut his distance back to the current seven furlongs in his last start, and finished third. He’s liked running in the summer before, so maybe that is a key to his success.
#9- Five Star Five (Harrell Racing, ridden by N Arroyo Jr)- The best active foal from Five Daddy Five is looking to bounce back here after a couple of disappointing races. In both the Grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap, and the Grade 2 CD, Five Star Five was unable to make his presence felt and was a non-factor in both. Those races, especially the CD, were run in blistering fast times, so it is certainly very possible that this is the type of race that Five Star Five needs to get back on the right track. There’s a couple others in here that we are saying the same thing about, but he must be watched!
#10- Milestone (Mcl Stables, ridden by A O Solis)- Two races ago, Milestone won the biggest race of his career, getting a win in the prestigious Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap. So, it was pretty surprising when he was sent to make his turf debut in the next race that followed. He ran in the Read Stakes, and battled a few that we are seeing this weekend out at SAR for the Sword Dancer. Milestone was fifth there, and with that experiment out of the way, it is not a surprise to see him going back to the main track here. He should be a major threat here, even though this race is a furlong shorter then the Met.
#11- No Doubt About It (Mb Stables, ridden by G L Stevens)- The third of three entries for Mb Stables in this race, and all of them should have a fair chance at picking up a win here though I would pick the other two over him. Of the three, No Doubt About It is the only three year old that the trainer brings here. He’s run well both sprinting and going long, so while this distance might seem to be shorter that what he would like, that is not something I am concerned about. He has won five out of nine in his career, with his biggest wins coming when he was a two year old. There’s no doubt about the fact that a three year old can’t be counted out, so this may be the time he picks up his big win for this year.
#12- Wild Glory (Paradise Stable, ridden by T J Pereira)- The seven year old gelding will be making the 42nd start of his career. In those starts, he has seven wins, including two wins in the WO’s Grade 3 Vigil Stakes. He nearly made it three in a row in that stake this year, but finished second. The Vigil is a race much like this one, seven furlongs on the dirt for similar purse levels, and Wild Glory also ran in the Obrien last year, and finished second. He’s very consistent in getting a finishing position that gets his trainer an HRP check, though this race may have been a little tougher then expected. Still, don’t rule him out.
Prediction: 3-8-10-7
— NS
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
