On April 11, 2026, Fonner Park stages the Baxter Stakes at 6 furlongs on dirt for three-year-olds, with a purse of $20.000 and an additional condition limiting the field to runners that have not won a Graded Stake since October 11, 2025. This is a sprint spot that tends to reward speed and quick acceleration, and recent history includes a dead heat in 2024 when Down To The Wire and Ladin Rattler shared the win. The conditions also make this an interesting class-balancing event, with some lightly raced runners, some established allowance types, and a few trying to rebound from tougher company.

1. Boggart

Trainer/Owner: Delta Farms
Probable Jockey: Fackler C
Odds: 8-1

Boggart comes in off a good local win at Fonner Park on March 1, 2026, where he rallied from just off the pace to win a 6-furlong allowance in 1:09.4. That is a very relevant piece of form for this race. Earlier starts show a horse who has tried turf routes and dirt routes without as much punch, but the recent cutback to a sprint worked well. With 2 wins from 5 starts and earnings of $32.930, he has enough upside to make him dangerous. He looks like a viable contender if he repeats that latest local effort.

2. Brandy Dial

Trainer/Owner: The Sidley Stud
Probable Jockey: McNeil B
Odds: 6-1

Brandy Dial has useful sprint form and has been competitive in minor stakes company this year. He was third in the AZS Stakes at Turf Paradise in March after pressing the pace, and before that he was second in the Grasmi over 4 furlongs at Fonner. He also won an allowance at Finger Lakes last fall. His profile shows consistency, with 2 wins and 2 seconds from 8 starts and earnings of $22.350. He has enough speed to stay involved from the break, and his current form makes him one of the more credible threats here.

3. Haggis In Texas

Trainer/Owner: The Sidley Stud
Probable Jockey: Medina J A
Odds: 15-1

Haggis In Texas was well beaten in an open 6-furlong event at Fonner on March 7, 2026, after sitting close early and fading to seventh. He was gelded on March 7, 2026, which may signal a reset, but on paper he still has something to prove. His lone win came at 1 mile 70 yards at Finger Lakes, so this shorter sprint may not be his best setup, despite some prior sprint tries. With 1 win from 7 starts and earnings of $18.540, he appears more like an outsider unless the recent change sparks improvement.

4. Contract Holdout

Trainer/Owner: Nynl Stables
Probable Jockey: Quinonez B
Odds: 10-1

Contract Holdout is lightly raced and interesting. He broke his maiden at Turf Paradise in February 2026 over 6 furlongs, showing pace and finishing well enough to score by 1 1/4 lengths. With only 2 career starts, he offers more upside than many in this field. His earnings are just $9.920, and the race experience is limited, but his most recent figure fits the group. He is not exposed, and that makes him a live longshot.

5. Haizum

Trainer/Owner: Delta Farms
Probable Jockey: Cunningham T
Odds: 12-1

Haizum is something of a mystery because both career starts have been on turf, and he won his maiden at Tampa going 5 furlongs on the grass in February 2026. He has not yet raced on dirt, though his recent works at Fonner and Parx suggest his connections are giving him every chance to adapt. With just 2 starts and earnings of $15.000, he clearly has some ability, but the dirt surface is the unknown. That makes him a speculative candidate rather than a firm one.

6. Aragog

Trainer/Owner: Delta Farms
Probable Jockey: Ramos A B
Odds: 7-1

Aragog brings a reliable dirt background and enters off a runner-up finish in a Tampa allowance at 1 mile, where he set the pace and was beaten just a length. He broke his maiden at Parx over 1 mile 70 yards in January and has now finished in the top three in 6 of 7 starts. His career earnings of $48.430 are among the better totals in this field. The main question is whether the cutback to 6 furlongs sharpens him enough or leaves him slightly vulnerable to quicker sprinters. Still, he has every right to be competitive.

7. Peace Frog

Trainer/Owner: South Shore Stables
Probable Jockey: Pusac A
Odds: 9-2

Peace Frog arrives in excellent winning form, having taken both of his starts in 2026, both on turf at Belterra Park over 5 furlongs. He now owns 3 wins from 4 starts, which is impressive, and his earnings stand at $15.060. The issue is surface. All of his best work has been on turf, and while he did not run poorly in his lone route try, this is his first dirt sprint stakes attempt. His sharp recent form keeps him on the shortlist, but he is a surface-question runner.

8. Hashtag Haggis

Trainer/Owner: The Sidley Stud
Probable Jockey: Cardoso D
Odds: 20-1

Hashtag Haggis was beaten soundly in a 5-furlong turf allowance at Belterra on March 25, 2026, and he has not shown much recent momentum. He was gelded on March 25, 2026, and his prior dirt form includes a few okay efforts, including a third in an allowance at Belterra and a sixth in the LITFJS at Turf Paradise. With only 1 win from 7 starts and earnings of $11.040, he looks like one of the tougher sells in this field.

9. Higgs Poopina

Trainer/Owner: Zoeller
Probable Jockey: Roman K
Odds: 8-1

Higgs Poopina has not raced in 2026, but his last appearance was a win in a West Virginia-bred allowance at Mountaineer over 6 furlongs in November 2025. He has won 2 of 3 career starts, so the profile is efficient, though thin. The layoff is the obvious concern, but the recent short work at Fonner suggests he is being pointed here with intent. He is a plausible upset candidate if ready off the bench.

10. Poor Mans Song

Trainer/Owner: Williams9
Probable Jockey: Birzer A E
Odds: 7-2

Poor Mans Song is the most accomplished horse in the field on class lines. He exits the Gotham (G3), where he was out finished at 1 mile but faced a far stronger group than he meets here. Before that, he won a $25.000 claimer at Santa Anita over 6 furlongs and was third in the Turfway Prevue at 6 1/2 furlongs. His record of 3 wins, 3 seconds, and 2 thirds from 9 starts with earnings of $153.880 stands out, and the cutback from graded one-turn mile company into this sprint should help him considerably. He looks like the most likely winner.

Pace Structure and Race Outlook

The race should be honest early. Brandy Dial, Contract Holdout, and Poor Mans Song all have the kind of sprint speed to be involved right away, while Boggart and Aragog can sit just behind that first wave and make their move turning for home. Higgs Poopina also has enough speed from prior races to stay close if fit enough off the layoff. Several runners, including Peace Frog and Haizum, bring turf form that could translate to tactical speed, but the dirt surface remains the key unknown for them. On balance, the edge goes to the runner with the strongest established dirt sprint class.

Projected Winner

Poor Mans Song gets the nod. The Gotham did not work out, but that was a much tougher race, and this return to a 6-furlong dirt sprint looks much more suitable. Aragog and Boggart are the main threats, while Brandy Dial and Contract Holdout also fit well enough to make this competitive.

Top selection: Poor Mans Song
Main danger: Aragog
Best value threat: Boggart
Live longshot: Contract Holdout

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded