The OP Handicap – Grade II
OP Race #1 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $1,000.000 For Four Year Olds And Upward.
I just love these types of races because a 1K handicap tends to throw up all sorts of different questions than those asked for a 1K Stakes race. In past years we have seen cleverly placed horses with lower handicap marks take the prize in fact the last time any horse won with 123Lbs was in 2007. So very often it is not the superstars who win these races but horses that can grind it out at stakes level but need a little help from the handicapper or up and comers who have yet to reach the highest heights.
This year we see a much bigger spread in the weights but i have noticed so far this year that class has in fact overcome weight handicaps in other races so i just wonder whether a minor tweak has been made to make weight a little less of a burden. I guess today we will find out for sure.
Here is how they line up and my best guess as to who will do well:
1 So Profound Asgar Velazquez J R 117
We start off with the ace draw and a very competitively weighted five year old that has won over 1K in prize money in a relatively light career. This is one of those cleverly placed runners that has won a grade one handicap before with more weight than this and was only beaten a head in the BC dirt mile last year and yet gets in here with a feather weight on his back. His form is excellent but i also like the fact that he had a decent break and in his only start this year he made up some nice ground from a wide draw to be a close fourth in the Razorback Handicap. His works are strong and i like his chances a lot.
2 Splash Mountain John Henry Bridgmohan S X 119
This is a great champion having won well over 6K in prize money and won the 2018 BC Classic in a fabulous career. Going on his recent speed figures and works he has not slowed down one notch and is sure to be competitive again today. With the perfect draw today and a reasonable weight he has to be in the mix but there are a few questions that have to be asked before we announce him the winner.
When he won the Cigar Mile Handicap at the end of last year he was carrying 117Lb’s, 1Lb less than So Profound who was only a half length behind him. Today he gets 2Lb’s more than that horse so has to cope with a 3Lb turn round for just a half length.
The other question is that he doesn’t always run the same race twice so it is hard to guess which horse will turn up today. At his worst he is a battling fifth at his best he wins so take your pick.
3 Dauzac TwinTowersRacing Fuentes Ru 116
I have said it before and i will say it again this trainer often performs miracles at this level with horses that look hard pressed and this is another like that.
With a little digging into his form it is very easy to find reasons why he could do well, notably when beaten just one length in the Pegasus World Cup of 2020. He won his last start in a sub 1.35 mile time and has worked a 1.36 for the mile in his last serious work out before this race. Add all that up and suddenly he looks a big threat off of bottom weight and with a great draw.
4 Out On A Limb Estero Farms Davis D 116
A ten race winner of over 2K with a good draw and the feather weight of 116Lbs you have to take this ones chances very seriously. How did he get here with just 116Lbs you may ask, well, he has been running in sprints since Jan 2019 picking up two grade three’s and a grade two. But if you have a delve into his race history you find a grade one win in the Whitney over this trip and a TC campaign in 2017 which wasn’t too bad and a second in the BC Dirt Mile in the same year.
He showed at age 7 he can still win big races with a win in the San Carlos last time and his works are pretty much as good as anything else so he must go into the reckoning in a wide open race.
5 Space Commander Nakamura Stables Carrasco V R 123
Here we have the clear top weight and the acid test for my theory that weight advantages have been played with a little. This is typical of those HRP late developers as his improvement curve didn’t start going up until November 2019. Previous to that he had taken 9 races to break maidens but after that he won a grade three and never really looked back. It may have had something to do with the Magic man Nakamura bought him and we all know how the Nak factor can help but three good trainers had had him before that and couldn’t taste the same success so the jury is a little out on that fact. His form really peaked last year when he ran a nose second in the BC Classic and then took the Pegasus World Cup on his seasonal debut. Those two pieces of form are huge but it is worth noting that in two races around those he was beaten in handicaps carrying plenty of weight. His work of 1.35 and 2 back in March was a bit special and whilst weight has stopped him in past handicaps i have a suspicion that weight wont stop him this time.
6 A Born Dancer Maxmillion Farm Gaffalione T 116
Another like the TwinTowers entry that has nowhere near the form of the best of these but with form meaning little these days and bottom weight it is certainly worth taking a serious look at him. To be fair to him he is a good overnighter but there is nothing in his form that says he can win this but there is two things that says he might. Firstly Maxmillion Farm like TwinTowersRacing knows how to win these big races from the left field and secondly and more importantly he threw a 1.35 and 4 work on this track. That work with bottom weight would see him winning this but there is nothing else that would so you have to take the gamble if you want to back him.
7 Achilles Mb Stables Jaramillo E 117
This horse has won the SA Handicap twice and finished third this year and still he gets in here with the joint lowest handicap weight he has ever had. The one thing i will never understand is the US or HRP handicapping system but it is what it is and this great six year old gets another chance at grade one glory. Bought by the current stable as his form looked to be tailing off, his third last time was a signal that he may have been brought back from the dead and it would be some story if he could win today. His works as always are solid and whilst he wouldn’t be my first choice i certainly wouldn’t discount him winning with this handicap mark
8 Cherokee Twins TwinTowersRacing Lezcano J 116
This great stable with a big heart throws not only one bottom weight into the mix but two. I am not sure this is the best of the two but he has been working better than his form suggests and does have snippets of form such as a third in the TX Mile last year. He would be a shock winner but you just never know.
9 A Storm Has Arrived Maxmillion Farm Court J K 117
A seven year old winner of 1.25K he is useful on his day and has made a decent start to the 2021 season. A winner on debut he ran well with weight to be third in the New Orleans Handicap and one must not forget that he has already won a grade one Handicap when he took the Clark in 2018. I am not sure his old legs are up to the best of these today but he has a light weight and will certainly make his presence felt.
10 Harry Met Meghan Gdp Inc Stein J 116
If ever there was a topical winner it is this one. Recently sold for just $42 the five year old looks to have had Bute added to his diet and low and behold he recently laid down a 1.36 and 1 mile work. On his form you would have to be a horse whisperer to give him any chance but that recent work says that the new owner has unlocked something in his code and it is just a matter of how much.
11 Bellamango Wood Duck Stables Bejarano R 117
With only nine starts this one is the least experienced in the field but still manages for some reason to come in above the minimum. He was looking pretty special when he ended a run of victories with a win in the Seagram Cup and went on to run third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup propelling himself and his trainer into the big time. He has been pretty disappointing in his two starts this year but did lay down a 1.36 flat mile work after his last run so maybe he is ready to give the trainer their biggest ever win.
12 Obeah Mon Night Rider Stables Zayas E J 119
The trainer must feel pretty hard done by with two runners and the 12 and 13 draw but both are not without a chance of things go their way. This one looks the best on paper running third as a three year old in the Woodward Handicap and winning the Northern Dancer last year. His seasonal reappearance was in the Pegasus World Cup where he ended up 4th. His works are solid and he seems effective on both surfaces so if the Race engine works for him he could get in the first four.
13 Gettysburg Night Rider Stables Espinoza V 116
He has been sprinting for most of his life and has done pretty well but he would have to improve in order to be a part of this. His works are fast enough to put him into contention but i think if he was mine i would be using him to force a strong pace for his stable companion. Off bottom weight you can’t write him off but i couldn’t put him top of my list.
14 Foolish Pleasure D J C Racing Stables Beschizza A 117
When this one was gelded late last year he ran off three wins in a row and looked like he could be anything but three runs since has brought expectations down to earth. The trainer is going through some rotten luck at the moment and i hope he runs well for them but the car park draw will make it horribly hard for him.
SUMMARY
What a race this is with every ingredient needed in a handicap like this. I think Space Commander is the best in the race and if the weight situation has been addressed he may just win. If its business as usual then i am going for So Profound and A Born Dancer to battle it out.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
