Valley View Stakes (G2) – Keeneland

1 Mile Turf – Fillies, 3YO Purse $400.00

1. MISS COMANCHE

Form Assessment: Improving but still has something to prove on turf

Started the season in modest company before stringing together strong dirt performances at Emerald Downs and Del Mar. Her runner-up in the California-bred stakes at Del Mar and subsequent victory against older horses showed genuine progression.

Her first attempt against graded turf company came in the Winter Memories (G3), where she never threatened and finished ninth. The positive is that she encountered soft going and faced a substantially stronger field than previously.

Workouts

One of the most eye-catching work patterns in the field:

• 15Oct KEE – 1m turf in 1:35.0 (1/17)
• 6Oct KEE – 1m turf in 1:34.4 (1/11)

Those are elite turf works over the local course and suggest she has adapted exceptionally well to Keeneland.

Verdict

The race form says she is below the leading contenders, but the workouts suggest a much better effort is coming. Dangerous longshot.

2. WILD WATER WAGON

Form Assessment: One of the most reliable turf fillies in the race

Excellent body of work.

Since spring:

• Won the Appalachian (G2) at Keeneland.
• Fifth in both the Edgewood (G2) and Wonder Again (G2) after difficult trips.
• Fourth in the Belmont Oaks (G1).
• Runner-up in both the Music City (G2) and Winter Memories (G3).

This filly repeatedly shows up in graded company and rarely runs poorly.

Workouts

Steady and professional:

• 10Oct SA 6f turf 1:10.2
• 15Sep DMR 5f turf :58 (1/5)
• 17Aug DMR 6f turf 1:09.3 (2/18)

Not flashy, but very consistent.

Verdict

The proven Keeneland horse in the field. Strong contender and one of the safest exotic plays. It has to be said that she hasn’t consistently lived up to her best form as a juvenile but she is still top class and it would only take a modest move up back her improvement curve to see her winning

3. VALLEY CENTER

Form Assessment: Strong turf résumé if you forgive last start

Her QEII Challenge Cup (G1) effort looks ugly on paper, beaten more than ten lengths, but it came on soft ground where she never handled conditions.

Prior to that:

• Won Dueling Grounds Oaks (G3)
• Fourth in Saratoga Oaks (G2)
• Won Honeymoon (G3)

Those races fit very well here.

Workouts

Possibly the strongest local work pattern of all:

• 17Oct KEE 1m turf 1:35.3
• 5Oct KEE 6f turf 1:10.1 (2/80)

Trainer appears to have targeted this race specifically.

Verdict

Major bounce-back candidate. If the turf is firm, she belongs in every serious wagering discussion. From a stable that can produce big race winners watch for her slotting in and becoming dangerous off the turn.

4. CAILLEACH

Form Assessment: Arrives in the best current race form

The filly everyone has to beat on recent accomplishments.

Last two starts:

• Won Music City (G2)
• Won QEII Challenge Cup (G1)

Those victories came against quality opposition and demonstrate both speed and toughness.

The Test Stakes (G1) fourth on dirt also came against top-class sprinters.

Workouts

Strong maintenance pattern:

• 21Sep CD 6f turf 1:10.1 (1/5)
• 14Sep CD 1m turf 1:34.4 (1/10)
• 17Oct KEE 6f turf 1:10.3

Looks to have maintained excellent condition.

Verdict

The hottest horse in the race. Current form alone makes her a serious win threat. This is probably one that should’ve been in a BC race so she comes her off a short lay off since her stunning QE II win, If she can handle the two week break she is the obvious choice.

5. FREE THE VIKING

Form Assessment: Consistent and improving

Won the Winter Memories (G3) last time after producing a well-timed rally.

Prior starts show steady form:

• Third in Tomboy Stakes
• Second in Del Mar allowance
• Competitive in Wild Applause Stakes

She continues to move forward with maturity.

Workouts

• 14Oct KEE 6f turf 1:13.3 on soft turf (1/1)
• Several previous sharp turf drills

Not flashy but appears fit and healthy.

Verdict

Comes off a graded-stakes win and deserves respect. May not have the upside of a few rivals but is difficult to dismiss given the improvement she has found in her new stable.

6. VAST

Form Assessment: Honest but class test looks difficult

She won an allowance at Parx and broke her maiden impressively, but graded company has exposed some limitations.

Recent graded efforts:

• Fourth in the Waya (G3)
• Fifth in the Ontario Colleen (G3)
• Third in the Tepin Stakes

Competitive without threatening.

Workouts

Limited recent preparation:

• 28Sep KEE 4f turf :46 (1/1)

Not as strong a work pattern as many rivals.

Verdict

Likely needs major improvement to defeat this field. Looks more of a minor placing candidate. Her form may look inconsistent due to her running style as a closer. Closers on this engine require the race to pan out perfectly for them and that doesn’t happen too often. If something sets off like a rabbit and she gets going at the right time she does have the ability to be a contender

7. ICE WATER

Form Assessment: Better than record suggests

Only one win from seven starts, but her turf form is sneaky good.

Highlights:

• Second in San Clemente Handicap (G2)
• Third in Soaring Softly (G3)
• Second in open allowance company

She repeatedly runs speed figures that put her right with the favorites.

Workouts

Excellent Keeneland preparation:

• 19Oct KEE 5f turf :58.1
• 13Oct KEE 1m turf 1:35.1
• 5Oct KEE 7f turf 1:22.2 (1/2)

This is the kind of work pattern that suggests peak fitness.

Verdict

A live upset possibility. If she finally finds a winning finish, she can surprise at a price. I say that mainly because her form looks up and down but that seems to be because connections haven’t really settled on her best trip yet. She has ability but you have to take a leap of faith with little evidence.

8. BUBBLE BATH

Form Assessment: Talented but inconsistent

Has only two wins from fourteen starts.

Best recent effort was a narrow defeat against older allowance company at Del Mar. Her Dueling Grounds Oaks effort was disappointing, although the race shape worked against her.

Workouts

Very sharp:

• 19Oct KEE 6f turf 1:09.4 (1/21)

Fastest recent work among many in the field.

Verdict

Workouts suggest she’s sitting on a peak effort, but her race form leaves questions. Dangerous underneath but like her stable mate has been all over the trips and surfaces and it is hard to find concrete evidence that she can win.

9. JUMP INTO ACTION

Form Assessment: Looking for her spring form

Earlier in the year:

• Won Herecomesthebride (G3)
• Second in Appalachian (G2)

Those efforts would make her a major player.

Since then:

• 11th in Edgewood
• 8th in Tepin
• 6th in Ontario Colleen
• 14th in Music City

Form has clearly tailed off.

Workouts

Good recent drills:

• 4Oct PRX 1m turf 1:35.0 (1/4)
• 16Oct PRX 6f turf 1:10.1 (4/16)

Suggest she remains physically sound.

Verdict

Back class gives her an outside chance, but she must reverse a significant form decline.

10. ALLOW

Form Assessment: Massive upside

The most lightly raced filly in the field and perhaps the most exciting.

Career:

• 5 starts
• 3 wins

Recent sequence:

• Won Santa Anita Oaks Handicap (G2)
• Competitive fourth in Del Mar Oaks (G1)
• Dominant 4-length allowance victory with a 97 figure

Every start has shown development.

Workouts

Outstanding:

• 17Oct SA 5f turf :56.4 (1/9)
• Consistent quick California turf drills all season

Comes into the race absolutely thriving.

Verdict

The horse with the most upside in the field. Form is improving quickly and the recent works are exceptional. What seems obvious here is that the horse will use the wide gate speed push and lead and there doesn’t look a whole lot of speed in the race that will stop that. Mb knows how the engine works and will use that to the horses advantage.

Race Summary:

The obvious choice is Cailleach on form but I do worry about this short turnaround because HRP seems to put more emphasis on that than we see in real life. If she doesn’t perform then it may be safest to go with the horse and trainer that will work the race engine the best and that would be Allow from the outside. Now whilst she looks very good and we have seen many times the stable ride the race engine to victory she is still a little unproven and there are plenty of others that may challenge. The trouble is most are likely to be trying to close so it is hard to pick which one will get the timing right and the clear trip, any of them could but on this engine not many of them do.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES