11/03
BC Turf – Grade I
CD Race #14 1 1/2m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $4,000.000 For Three Year Olds And Upward.
Like most of the BC races this one has been the property of the three year olds in recent years as the younger generation have taken the last four runnings however historically they havent had the success as they have in other BC races with only 6 from 15 wins. Australia Wide is the only trainer to get more than one win and only J D Bailey and C Fraser have managed to ride more than one.
Last years winner Clockwork Chai has been retired so wont be here to defend his crown as the great Bronze Sabre did in 2009 and 2010 so there wont be anyone to challenge that record.
Generally this race goes to a turf routing specialist with very few winners coming from the left field although it has thrown up some outsiders most recently Admirals Aces at 14/1 who beat them from a wide draw in 2016.
So onto the runners and this years race features two three year olds who are working faster than most horses can run a mile in a race so we may see a fifth consecutive three year old winner which is hardly surprising since it was about 5 years ago that HRP sped up development so the younger generation could beat the elders with the age allowance.
1 Lets Do It Big Boy RNP Stables Davila J R Jr
WR – 102
A four year old gelding by Cherokee Sunset
Trained by RNP Stables who has no BC wins, a turf winning % of 14.7 and routes at 13.9
2016 – 211 – Took his maiden on the turf at his second attempt and went on to take a small allowance at TUP afterwards.
2017 – 42222 – Very lightly raced at three he didnt manage to win but did run second in a couple of ungraded stakes races.
2018 – 1042001 – Ran a good fourth in the Woodford Turf Classic before coming close to a first graded stakes win in the Whittingham going down by just a neck to the great Spanish Showboat. He didnt follow that up in his next two starts in the United Nations and The Arlington Million but did take the John Henry Turf at the end of last month. The miracle that he actually got into this race and then drew gate one will probably be the only miracles he will see as i can’t see him winning this race but i am thrilled for his trainer who take the gamble to buy this one and managed to get him in the race.
2 Bayou Quartier Invicta Group Llc Franco G
WR – 108
A five year old gelding by Charlemagne
Trained by Mb Stables who has 13 Bc wins and a turf winning % of 28.6, routes at 30.9
2015 – 4 – Beaten ten lengths in a fair tack maiden on debut there was no surprise that he was gelded straight away and put out in a field for a few months.
2016 – 01123222 – He trundled through the season running consistently but never really breaking through ending the season being sold twice for just $20.000 and $25.000.
2017 – 012133103 – His four year old year started much like his three year old one, running pretty well but never really doing enough to be considered a graded stakes runner although we did get a glimpse of what he was about to become in the Sycamore at grade three when he got home by a neck at the end of the year.
2018 – 2111000 – It was the start of his five year old season that we really began to see his true ability winning three in a row. He beat some fair ones in The San Luis Rey and then did the same in the Elkhorn and by the time he won The BEL Gold Cup from Bring The Pain people were really beginning to notice him. Inexplicably after doing so well on turf he was sent to the Pacific Classic on the dirt where he ended up 13th and it really seemed to knock his confidence. Put back to turf in the Northern Dancer he was a lack lustre seventh but he was a bit better when a close sixth in the Pattison Canadian International last time out hinting of a return to form.
Make no bones he is an outsider here but this late maturing type looks like he is finding himself again and he may just run a surprising race from a great draw.
3 Early Retirement Mb Stables Colon L H
WR – 118
A three year old gelding by Decima
Trained by Mb Stables who has 13 Bc wins and a turf winning % of 28.6, routes at 30.9
2017 – 0210 – Won the Cup and Saucer stakes as a maiden but was well beaten in the dirt equivalent to that race in his last start. He showed his liking for turf and a trip pretty early on.
2018 – 2122112 – Starting off at allowance level he won on his second start and then went to the San Francisco mile where he ran a cracker against older horses considering it was only March running on strongly for second. Another second in the MTh Stakes he then got up over a mile and a quarter and gamely won the BEL Derby, a very good stepping stone for this race. He really hit the heights next up when he strolled home by three easy lengths in the Arlington Million beating Decibel Lunar Blaze and Spanish Showboat in a performance that had people talking about favouritism for this very race. He got a horrible draw last time out in the Hirsch Turf Classic and was taken back only to run on late when the race was already won. People Doubted beat him that day by a very easy three lengths but they had very different trips and it will be great to see them match strides again today. A stupendous 1.33 and 4 work for the mile and 1.09 and 2 for the 6 furlongs will make him almost impossible to beat for the older horses who have to give him weight. Put that together with a perfect draw and his main rival out in the cheap seats then he has the look of yet another Mb Stables BC Turf winner.
4 Devilish Luck D J C Racing Stables Velazquez J R
WR – 109
A four year old gelding by Devilish Looks
Trained by D J C Racing Stables who has 2 BC wins a turf winning % of 16.8, routes at 16.1
2016 – 3 – Gelded after a fair debut run at RET he didnt see the track again as a juvenile
2017 – 21 – Very lightly raced at three he ran a nice second before claiming his first win over five furlongs at GP.
2018 – 11022201 – After so much patience bringing this horse to his four year old season with only three starts Mb Stables entered him in a claimer where his current owner snatched him up for a bargain $25.000. It was all up after that and after a couple of good black type efforts he ran a super second in the Manhattan beaten just a neck by The Joker. Since then he has proved himself finishing second in the Bowling Green Handicap and then a fine second in the Sword Dancer from a wide draw and a close fifth in the Northern Dancer. In his last start he defied top weight and a wide draw to comfortably win the Knickerbocker Handicap and has rated 3 SRF figures of 100 in his last three starts.
This is an under rated sort who is lightly raced and really hitting his straps at the right time. His form or works arent as spectacular as some of the main hopes but he is no forlorn hope here and i have a feeling he is still improving.
5 Spanish Showboat Mb Stables Pennington F
WR – 116
An eight year old gelding by Spanish Force
Trained by Mb Stables who has 13 Bc wins and a turf winning % of 28.6, routes at 30.9
2012 – 10303 – Starting way back in 2012 he was bought at auction pre race for $303.000 only to be sold again for $42.000 just two races later. His new owner saw him third in the Remsen at the end of the year and must have been pretty happy with their purchase.
2013 – 00003112324 – An early attempt at TC qualification was quickly abandoned and he showed his first glimmer of his true turf losing self with a close fifth in the American Turf but his best surface was still up in the air by the end of the year as he finished second in the Hirsch Turf Classic and then second in the BC Marathon.
2014 – 1101103 – He kicked off the season with a win in the Pan American and then a huge six length victory in The Man O War, followed by wins in the Arlington Million and The Hirsch Turf Classic. It was those four wins which really announced his arrival on a scene that he was to be a part of for another 4 years.
2015 – 1010024 – A quite year by his standards taking the Woodford Turf Classic and running a close fourth in the BC Turf Mile.
2016 – 1314010 – 2016 saw him win the Northern Dancer but he again disappointed in the BC Turf finishing well behind in thirteenth.
2017 – 30221300 – Probably his least successful year he still managed a grade one win in the Manhattan but once again failed badly in the BC finishing twelfth this time.
2018 – 012112411 – He has won a grade one every year for four years, an amazing record made more amazing by the fact that he is having one of his best seasons at the ripe old age of eight. His last two starts have seen impressive wins in the KY Turf Cup and The Shadwell Turf Mile both times being in the wet a surface which he seems to love having won 4 from 5 on it. His record is nothing short of amazing having won 18 races for over five thousand dollars the one thing that has alluded him in all that time is a BC win. He has run so badly in this race in the past that its hard to see how he can turn that around but if a miracle is going to happen then this is a horse that has proven time and time again that he is one of the best in HRP history, could just do it…..especially if it rains!
6 The Joker D J C Racing Stables Gallardo A A
WR – 112
A four year old gelding by Champsville
Trained by D J C Racing Stables who has 2 BC wins a turf winning % of 16.8, routes at 16.1
2016 – 03 – A pretty average maiden as a juvenile he did show promise on turf in his second start.
2017 – 12322 – The winner of a maiden claimer on debut he had a season where he only ran 5 times and changed hands three times. He was consistent and improving and by the time he was bought by Maxmillion Farm was starting to produce some good SRF speed figures.
2018 – 121103 – Once in the hands of Maxmillion Farm he hit a purple patch of form that wasnt repeated before or since he left that stable. Running second in the GP Turf Handicap he then won the Muniz Memorial Handicap from Spanish Showboat and then backed that up by beating Devilish Luck and Taniwha in The Manhattan. At that stage in the four year olds season he looked like the emerging star of turf routing but he was sold for $800.000 to D J C Racing Stables and the wheels came off in spectacular fashion. An awful effort in the Arlington Million was followed by a nine length beating in the KY Turf Cup and we are left wondering just where to place this horse as i am sure his new owner is. If he reproduces his Manhattan form he could do well here but anything like his last two efforts and he will be last.
7 Danke Schon Nakamura Stables Saez L
WR – 108
A four year old gelding by El Gran Diadame
trained by Nakamura Stables who has 1 BC win, a turf winning % of 18.9 and routes at 21.2
2016 – 3 – Only raced once as a juvenile beaten a long way when third of four in a PRX maiden.
2017 – 322221 – Bought from Australia Wide for $20.000 he took all year to break maidens finally getting off the mark in November at TAM
2018 – 212010 – After that single maiden win he made remarkable progress as a four year old finishing second in the Fort Lauderdale on debut and then winning the Canadian Turf by a head. Then came four very odd races, firstly beaten in a optional claimer and then an 11 length eighth in the Dixie followed by a commanding all the way win in the Bowling Green Handicap over Devilish Luck and finally an awful tenth in the Hirsch Turf Classic where he was beaten out of sight.
It really is hard to assess his chances, its is fair to say that he is lucky to make the field at all let alone get a great draw but it is very hard to see how he can beat the principles in this race. If he had improved from his Bowling Green win then, yes, i could give him a chance but his last run was so poor that it is impossible to put him in your top three.
8 Going Gone John Henry Bejarano R
WR – 105
A four year old gelding by Cherokee Sunset.
Trained by John Henry who has 0 BC wins and a turf winning % of 13.8, routes at 13.2
2016 – 1- Probably the most interesting thing about this automatic qualifier is his sale history and it all started in his first race when he took a $5.000 claimer by eight lengths and was claimed by Rouge River Stables who then sold him before the end of the year for $9.000 to John Henry. That stable was to lose him in a claimer for $20.000 and then buy him back as a four year old for $330.000.
2017 – 021011320200 – Once settled in a stable his year started off pretty well winning three at overnight level but he was sold again in mid year and joined Team 7 Illusions for just under $60.000. In his new stable he was aimed higher running pretty well to be second twice at ungraded level but failing above that.
2018 – 2240110 – He carried on pretty much as he left off as a three year old running well at ungraded level and failing at anything above that but then came the DMR Handicap, a win and your in race for this one, and he finally managed to win one. The race of course was a farce thanks to a rabbit and he was the one that won the rush of the closers by a head. His last start saw him an unspectacular ninth in the Shadwell Turf Mile which seemed to be back to the drawing board for him.
The race that he won that put him in here was silliness itself and therefore you really have to take the form with a pinch of salt. He is not a bad sort and deserves a go at this but he is working slower than all the three year olds and has to give them weight so i can’t see him worrying the judge.
9 Mist Maker Crocker Ggs Court J K
WR – 106
A three year old colt by Nebulizer
Trained by Crocker Cgs, who has 0 BC wins, a turf win % of 17 and routes at 16.2
2017 – 0311 – Started with last place in a maiden which tends to happen with debutants at HRP but soon turned that around with wins in the Coronation Futurity and the Remsen after a good third in the Cup and Saucer. The interesting thing about this part of his career was that he ran so well in the Cup and Saucer over a trip on the turf but was switched back to the dirt to really stamp himself as a TC hope in the Remsen. Later that run on the turf was to be the clue that led him here.
2018 – 03402010 – Naturally enough he started the year on the TC trail but just couldnt catch a break running third in the Gotham and fourth in the Wood Memorial and so missing his chance at the KYD. He took on the Preakness and led them for a long way before fading into fifth and then ran a great second in the Queens Plate. A failure in the Haskell next up caused his trainer to take a long hard look at his winless season so far and that may be when he noticed that Cup and Saucer run and decided to give the turf a go. It was an inspired decision as he went on to beat Devilish Luck, The Force Awakens and Taniwha in the Sword Dancer showing an impressive turn of foot and really stamping himself a live chance for this turf championship race. Drawn wide he got oo far behind in the Shadwell Turf Mile last time but was only three lengths off the winner at the end after running into a wall in the stretch.
Here is yet another three year old with a winning chance. His works are right up there with the other three’s and better than any of the older ones so with the weight allowance he has a great chance with some luck in running.
10 Taniwha Aml Racing Albarado R J
WR – 115
A four year old colt by Monarch
Trained by Aml Racing who has 0 BC wins and a turf winning % of 17.1, routes at 19
2016 – 22- This horse has never raced on anything but turf and never below seven furlongs. His first two starts as a juvenile saw him second twice in good maidens but his breeder didnt push him too fast and he was allowed to mature before going for the win.
2017 – 0210101 – He took a while longer than expected to break maidens but when he did he really went from good to brilliant very quickly. A late flying fifth in the BEL Derby he then won the Secretariat Stakes at grade one before a better than it looked fifth in the Hirsch Turf Classic. It was at this point his owner breeder left the game and Aml Racing took the reins and he immediately paid back his purchase price by winning the HOL Turf Cup.
2018 – 111341 – After an allowance win to start the year he took the Pan American beating Techfluence. He then finished with his customary late flourish to be third in the Manhattan and fourth in the Sword Dancer but ran closer to the pace and won the Pattison Canadian International in his last start. With ony 5 starts this year he comes here pretty fresh even though his last start was only 3 weeks ago so i am not too worried about the proximity of the Pattison to this race.
If it wasnt for the three year olds in this race i would be very keen on his chances but giving weight to horses than are working a second quicker is a tough ask. If he gets a decent trip he could well be in at the finish.
11 Valiant Charge Threshold Vargas J A Jr
WR – 102
Trained by Threshold who has 0 BC wins and a turf % of 15 and route at 16.4
A five year old gelding by Brilliant
2015 – 1113- A decent juvenile he won three in a row before a good third in the DeMille Stakes
2016 – 2130302- finished third in the American Turf on the way to a good run in the BEL Derby when running home strongly to be sixth beaten a length. After running behind in the Shadwell he got a deserved win in the Let It Ride towards the end of the year.
2017 – 20434330- Ran second in the Canadian Turf this time before running a strong fourth in the Shoemaker Mile. Though his season was to end without a win he managed fourth in the Foster Handicap and two thirds in the Northern Dancer and Pattison Canadian International it a successful but winless year that put him in the mix with the best turfers of his generation.
2018 – 3103- Lightly raced this year he may be peaking nicely for this race after a hard closing third in the Shadwell Turf Mile last time out. He has raced exclusively over a mile this year but has run well enough over this trip to suggest he can stretch out. He gets in the race by the skin of his teeth and is a stable favourite so i think he has achieved his day in the sun without really needing to do much more. An each way hope at his very best but it may be tough from this draw.
12 Techfluence The Sidley Stud Ortiz I Jr
WR – 116
A 5 year old by Techno
Trained by The Sidley Stud who has 1 BC win and a turf win% of 25.1, routes at 21.5
2015 – 01100 – Won the grade three AP Washington Futurity as a juvenile and ran pretty well in the Iroquois and the Futurity especially when you consider they were on the dirt and he was later to prove he was a turf specialist.
2016 – 320333312221 – A highly consistent three year old season he dabbled on both surfaces placing at graded level on numerous occasions including a second in the Marathon and a win in the grade three Valedictory Stakes. This was the year that he proved that an extreme distance was his best trip but with one win on both surfaces he had yet to show his preference for turf.
2017 – 30311104 – Strangely it was after a win in the grade three Dominion Day Stakes on the dirt that his trainer finally made the decision to give the four year old a prolonged streak on turf and it was to prove his making. Starting off in the Sky Classic he went on to win the grade one Northern Dancer and finally run a fine fourth in this race capping off his best season so far.
2018 – 11243411 – Early wins in the Connelly BC Turf and the Diarmida underlined him as one of the top turf routers around but he was beaten a neck by Taniwha in the Pan American and then hit a little flat spot which caused his owner to take him back to the dirt for a few races. It wasnt a terribly successful jaunt and thankfully he was brought back to the turf in his last two starts which brought about his best form of the year. Firstly a good win in the Sky Classic was followed by a second win in the Northern Dancer which sets him up once again for a go at this championship race.
There is no doubt this consistent sort is a top class individual but he has failed to really string together the sort of form that see’s him the top of his genre. He is more than capable of winning this on his day but i think an honest race is on the cards with maybe some place money. Having said that his last two wins have brought about his highest ever SRF figures and he would be four from five on a firm turf track this year without a couple of races on dirt and a run in soft ground in the Man O War. He may well be a late improver and could turn out to be the best of the older chances.
13 Bring The Pain Mb Stables Lopez P
WR – 105
A four year old gelding by Cliffs Of Moher
Trained by Mb Stables who has 13 Bc wins and a turf winning % of 28.6, routes at 30.9
2016 – unraced
2017 – 3111201 – After a debut rn at MNR he won three in a row before taking on the Hirsch Turf Classic and finishing a highly creditable second from a wide draw. With that excellent run in top company under his belt he was strongly fancied for the Pacific Classic but soft ground ruined his day and he ran a shocker to finish a mile behind in thirteenth.
2018 – 04222322 – His form figures arent exactly encouraging in taking on the best turfers in the game but he could easily have won three or four races this year but for a bit of luck and better timing. He came from the clouds in a ridiculous DMR Handicap which was ruined by the use of a rabbit and only got beat a half length in third and was then beaten just a nose in the Northern Dancer by Techfluence. His last start saw another honest effort when a length behind Taniwha in the Pattison Canadian International.
This is a good sort who is working 1.09 and 2 for 6 furlongs quicker than most if not all of the older horses but his problem lays more with the rivals in his own age group. He has a bit to find with Techfluence and Taniwha and will need a bit of luck to get in the first four.
14 People Doubted Aml Racing Gutierrez Mario
WR – 116
A three year old colt by People Want To Know
Trained by Aml Racing who has 0 BC wins and a turf winning % of 17.1, routes at 19
2017 – 0221134 – He was a fairly useful juvenile winning his maiden and an allowance before running a creditable third in the Breeders Futurity and fourth in the DED Jackpot. Those performances put him in line to try for the TC picture as it was obvious he needed a trip.
2018 – 2244211 – To be fair to Mb Stables, who was later to sell him, his seasonal debut on turf didnt suggest he was going to be a turf superstar in fact he was beaten in an optional claimer adding to the opinion that horses at HRP have a development curve and nothing you can do will make them reach their best before they are coded to. After a very good second in the Risen Star and a fair fourth in the FL Derby Mb Stables got shot of his second string TC hopefuls and Aml Racing took the gamble and bought him for $400.000. He ran very well in the KYD to be fourth but then came the switch back to turf that was to prove his making. Beaten a neck in the BEL Derby by his main rival today, Early Retirement, he was running from a wide gate that day and did well to get so close almost holding on after leading into the stretch. His last two races have been very impressive winning the Secretariat Stakes and the Hirsch Turf Classic where he got revenge on Early Retirement whose turn it was to get the bad draw. He is an on pace runner which will help in a big field and his recent works of 1.33 and 3 for the turf mile and 1.09 and 1 are very very quick. He has to be a top three pick and should just about win if things go his way.
15 Dan D Man Nakamura Stables – Also Eligible –
Only really has one run that gives him any hope if he gets in this race and that was his second in the Sky Classic last time.
16 B K D Express Drabfantasy – Also Eligible –
It is unlikely he will make the field but if he does he may be outclassed.
SUMMARY
This field has a different look about it than i thought with a few getting in from way out of the qualifying top 20 as some of the field has gone for the mile instead. The record of three year olds recently is a strong pointer and the best drawn of them is Early Retirement who should just about win. My top choice would’ve been People Doubted and whilst i think he will still be in it at the end he will have to be a super horse to beat Early Retirement from the car park draw. Mist Maker is good enough to make it a one two three for the three year olds but there is a certain eight year old who may have something to say about that especially if it rains. Taniwha may be the best of the older horses.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES
